{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "0144M0",
    "name": "Samsung Kodex US Drone Urban Air Mobility Top10 ETF",
    "exchange": "KSC"
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  "latest_open": 7360.0,
  "latest_high": 8310.0,
  "latest_low": 7325.0,
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  "analysis_bar_count": 33,
  "reversal_percent": 16.0,
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    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "price": 8235.0,
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    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": -0.22620201076659838
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 0.8290985576262264
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 1.1290715089423193
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 0.8459812644988035
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 0.5524514177722759
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -0.3898674627560113
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": -0.7236129221276864
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": -1.284865432235705
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -1.751313973107483
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -1.9309964942037994
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "value": -2.103562477445621
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "value": -1.5062753530323563
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
      "degree": "tactical",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 63,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 10450.00; Wave 2 8235.00.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 22,
          "date": "2026-05-29",
          "price": 10450.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 31.695022054190297,
          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 31,
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "price": 7215.0,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -30.95693779904306,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 32,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 8235.0,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 14.137214137214137,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 10450.0,
      "confirmation": 7215.0,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 100
    },
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 24.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 16.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 11.2,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 10450.00; Wave 2 8235.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 22,
              "date": "2026-05-29",
              "price": 10450.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.695022054190297,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 31,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 7215.0,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -30.95693779904306,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 32,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 8235.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 14.137214137214137,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 10450.0,
          "confirmation": 7215.0,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 100
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 7.7% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 4.399103765070961
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -5.724098454493418
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -5.516903318738984
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 12179.194468,
      "low_52": 6865.0,
      "position_52": 25.78001253528835,
      "drawdown": -32.384690780355804
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    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 48.43901424941691,
      "average_weekly_range": 5.587264034911744,
      "active_drawdown": -31.112664154650325
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    "levels": {
      "support": null,
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 8922.524712,
      "fair_value": 9044.123289,
      "trend_gap": -7.705495184287255,
      "fair_value_gap": -8.946398264872208
    },
    "active_swing": {
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      "to": {
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        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 8235.0,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "7.7% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-66.0",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.4",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-26.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 0,
      "negative": 5,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 83,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
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      "history_score": 13,
      "indicator_coverage": 40,
      "structure_score": 0,
      "weekly_observations": 33,
      "confirmed_pivots": 0
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    "volume_ratio": 31.076133423116055,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 7215.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 10450.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 42,
      "rising_cycle_count": 1,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 4,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 25,
          "positive_rate": 60.0,
          "median_return": 1.4,
          "average_return": -0.44,
          "median_excess_return": -4.98,
          "excess_observations": 25,
          "p10": -13.73,
          "p90": 7.96
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 9,
          "positive_rate": 66.7,
          "median_return": 1.92,
          "average_return": 1.64,
          "median_excess_return": -30.89,
          "excess_observations": 9,
          "p10": -9.26,
          "p90": 10.95
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        {
          "weeks": 26,
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          "positive_rate": 75.0,
          "median_return": 0.46,
          "average_return": 2.22,
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          "excess_observations": 4,
          "p10": -0.54,
          "p90": 6.4
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      ],
      "benchmark": "^KS11",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 26.89738919247116,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 25,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 7.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 26% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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