{ "ticker": { "symbol": "PBFB", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - FEBRUARY", "exchange": "CBOE" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 32.4007, "latest_open": 32.22, "latest_high": 32.41, "latest_low": 32.22, "bar_count": 132, "analysis_bar_count": 132, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 0, "date": "2024-02-02", "price": 25.2343, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.4007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.399440444157356, "weeks": 131, "confirmed": false } ], 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0.7263431774461697 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.8897965625398583 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0074827532247448 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.1139740723370923 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.1732665424283928 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.2219432522041496 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.267380418642521 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.2294648609811103 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.1823779911247716 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.1497603639017864 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.072562115429002 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0393700796633807 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.050687034575066 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.0074354755302375 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.9632038969500164 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.9501614487100315 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.0158914394964162 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.97; Wave B 29.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.83; C length 2.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.57\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 25.9743, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.289846527995287, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 30.7999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.578363998259825, "weeks": 43, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.6634, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.6899470452826195, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.4007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.227870035127468, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 32.4007, "confirmation": 29.6634, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 68 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 64, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.97; Wave 2 29.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 30.80; Wave 3 32.40.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.57\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 25.9743, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.289846527995287, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 30.7999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.578363998259825, "weeks": 43, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.6634, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.6899470452826195, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.4007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.227870035127468, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 29.6634, "confirmation": 32.4007, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 32 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 73, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 25.97; Wave B 29.66.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.83; C length 2.74.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.57\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 25.9743, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.289846527995287, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 30.7999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.578363998259825, "weeks": 43, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.6634, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.6899470452826195, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.4007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.227870035127468, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 32.4007, "confirmation": 29.6634, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 68 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 57, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 61, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 25.9743, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.289846527995287, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-01-30", "price": 30.7999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.578363998259825, "weeks": 43, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 112, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 29.6634, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -3.6899470452826195, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.4007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.227870035127468, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.8824688879529003, "fair_value_gap": 13.927541468992883, "market_activity": 50.963292, "market_dynamics": 0.283822, "relative_strength": -5.679548, "roc30": 5.971218315617338, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 3.9% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.9996882793017525 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.5338607594936677 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.499876268250432 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 11.448698589378902 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.79, "low_52": 29.0421, "position_52": 89.61284986258974, "drawdown": -1.187252211039947 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 5.453741562111112, "average_weekly_range": 0.9280551545518242, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 31.189767, "fair_value": 28.439743, "trend_gap": 3.8824688879529003, "fair_value_gap": 13.927541468992883 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 0, "date": "2024-02-02", "price": 25.2343, "kind": "low", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 32.4007, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.399440444157356, "weeks": 131, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 28.399440444157356, "weeks": 131, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.9% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-5.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+51.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+6.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 66, "history_score": 51, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 17, "weekly_observations": 132, "confirmed_pivots": 1 }, "volume_ratio": 86.31225367627042, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 52, "positive_rate": 78.8, "median_return": 0.81, "bar_width": 4.050000000000001, "average_return": 0.68, "best_return": 2.99, "worst_return": -2.97 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 90.7, "median_return": 2.89, "bar_width": 14.450000000000001, "average_return": 2.66, "best_return": 5.6, "worst_return": -2.68 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 4.97, "bar_width": 24.849999999999998, "average_return": 5.05, "best_return": 7.95, "worst_return": 0.06 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 29.66, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 32.40; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 436, "positive_rate": 64.7, "median_return": 0.69, "average_return": 0.61, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 436, "p10": -5.52, "p90": 6.17 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 151, "positive_rate": 70.2, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.35, "median_excess_return": -1.04, "excess_observations": 151, "p10": -7.8, "p90": 13.36 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 81, "positive_rate": 67.9, "median_return": 3.1, "average_return": 2.83, "median_excess_return": -4.37, "excess_observations": 81, "p10": -11.14, "p90": 16.41 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 37, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.9% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 9, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 58, "explanation": "Price is 90% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", 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