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"2026-07-24", "value": 0.7367086965705909 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.516059468449173 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.5545755027379573 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.96; Wave 2 10.31.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 9.95875, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.130511456452291, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 10.42, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.631605372160157, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 48, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.0556621880998027, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.95875, "confirmation": 10.42, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 10.50; Wave B 10.42.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.54; C length 0.11.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.20\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 10.497316, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.67422501355868, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 42, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 9.95875, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.130511456452291, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 10.42, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.631605372160157, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 48, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.0556621880998027, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 10.31, "confirmation": 10.42, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 10.574849539757674, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 6.609280962348546, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 4.626496673643982, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.96; Wave 2 10.31.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 24% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 42, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 9.95875, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.130511456452291, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 43, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 10.42, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.631605372160157, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 48, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.31, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.0556621880998027, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.95875, "confirmation": 10.42, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": null, "observations": 0, "label": "Unavailable" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "warming", "title": "Needs more weekly history", "direction": "neutral", "confidence": 20, "labels": [], "notes": [ "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context." ], "metrics": {} }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 6.1% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -1.0556621880998027 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.941038448427941 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 15.066964285714281 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": null } ], "range": { "high_52": 10.620147, "low_52": 8.54, "position_52": 85.09014026412562, "drawdown": -2.9203644732977696 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 21.901460646616087, "average_weekly_range": 1.761417134009385, "active_drawdown": -1.7844180360008135 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 29, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.73, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.586387434554975, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 29, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.73, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.586387434554975, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level", "trend": 9.71787, "fair_value": 9.542857, "trend_gap": 6.093207667935473, "fair_value_gap": 8.038923773037789 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 29, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.73, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.586387434554975, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 48, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.31, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 18.098510882016036, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 18.098510882016036, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "6.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "neutral", "value": "Unavailable", "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable." }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+22.6", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 0, "observed": 6, "agreement": 67, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "neutral" }, "evidence": { "score": 40, "history_score": 19, "indicator_coverage": 45, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 49, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 430.1714724882724, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [], "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible tactical count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 10.42, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.96; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 38, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 44, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 441, "positive_rate": 63.9, "median_return": 0.34, "average_return": 0.57, "median_excess_return": 0.19, "excess_observations": 441, "p10": -4.66, "p90": 5.25 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 149, "positive_rate": 70.5, "median_return": 1.11, "average_return": 2.48, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 149, "p10": -6.07, "p90": 11.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 78, "positive_rate": 78.2, "median_return": 2.99, "average_return": 5.68, "median_excess_return": 1.91, "excess_observations": 78, "p10": -8.65, "p90": 19.74 } ], "benchmark": "^AXJO", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.4068865179437466, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 44, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 1, "explanation": "Price is 6.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 6, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 40, "explanation": "Price is 85% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 88, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 88/100.", "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-26", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-10", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-24", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-07", "2025-11-14", "2025-11-21", "2025-11-28", "2025-12-05", "2025-12-12", "2025-12-19", "2025-12-26", "2026-01-02", "2026-01-09", "2026-01-16", "2026-01-23", "2026-01-30", "2026-02-06", "2026-02-13", "2026-02-20", "2026-02-27", "2026-03-06", "2026-03-13", "2026-03-20", "2026-03-27", "2026-04-03", "2026-04-10", "2026-04-17", "2026-04-24", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-08", "2026-05-15", "2026-05-22", "2026-05-29", "2026-06-05", "2026-06-12", "2026-06-19", "2026-06-26", "2026-07-03", "2026-07-10", "2026-07-17", "2026-07-24", "2026-07-31", "2026-08-07" ], "close": [ 8.8209, 9.07, 9.23, 9.18, 9.22, 9.52, 9.37, 9.503, 9.83, 9.59, 9.53, 8.75, 9.11, 9.15, 9.26, 9.0, 9.21, 9.21, 9.51, 9.21, 9.39, 9.55, 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20.615374675947784, 20.25774332958133, 20.108886309334245, 20.792894735390067, 21.029838968699256, 22.122392414884235, 23.452502050656566, 23.482396619310272, 24.537650923499722, 25.111990355972775, 25.094932169449084, 21.96482442782824, 21.828027564643275, 21.837499936306646, 22.328507217848074, 22.241624117015196, 23.47999215595891, 24.207405006097687, 23.893513013654143, 23.814300232406442, 23.74747521937044, 23.663603543526033, 21.901460646616087 ], "volumeRatio": [ null, null, null, null, null, null, null, 190.82017035230137, 204.3562924223879, 59.01309398467812, 79.23348897465655, 137.15367587647793, 76.0709575488047, 60.01438966701277, 399.9339644102927, 147.02543885321444, 46.955823024256325, 59.88558543736195, 60.130225609469434, 61.40728401375183, 194.63841454901663, 277.71513053197754, 82.55174801507802, 121.99374589281756, 93.5424181523759, 711.0269532319581, 194.74606202880872, 464.4156352392125, 71.52769361004864, 32.46568426632126, 54.580265989177704, 106.8291706514245, 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