{ "ticker": { "symbol": "CNEG", "name": "Amundi MSCI China ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 38.869999, "latest_open": 38.895, "latest_high": 39.044998, "latest_low": 38.810001, "bar_count": 116, "analysis_bar_count": 116, "reversal_percent": 7.270542445011038, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 19, "date": "2024-10-04", "price": 37.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 33, "date": "2025-01-10", "price": 30.25, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.243243243243242, "weeks": 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0.5474764200370044 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.6401311149684141 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.6629404665609344 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.5121894395205082 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.3711573669629243 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.2867131827854993 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.10610511775906514 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.2222009575319718 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.3092257567269182 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.44497449480015644 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.6151103816867597 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.609963683011892 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.5219666682802087 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.2882660931593486 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.24047991551863582 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.24334907523084365 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.1270237032248933 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.1214733409445262 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.3300939343665866 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.4356212537837337 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.4246809294472907 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.4722599239521795 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -0.6288368099413278 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.9614137281843487 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.001196096084471 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.8119621831134324 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.6025316096031172 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.4871157810837631 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.2553479016773469 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -0.06785722601221213 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 40.37; Wave 2 38.87.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.869999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 40.365002, "confirmation": 33.470001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 40.37; Wave 2 38.87.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.869999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 40.365002, "confirmation": 33.470001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.63286791201766, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.270542445011038, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 40.37; Wave 2 38.87.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.869999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 40.365002, "confirmation": 33.470001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.089379711507726, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 40.37; Wave 2 38.87.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.869999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 40.365002, "confirmation": 33.470001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 55, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.869999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -0.04628934375642398, "fair_value_gap": 6.890517103170654, "market_activity": -16.045106, "market_dynamics": 0.272014, "relative_strength": -13.914772, "roc30": -9.604653488372092, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.0% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 6.289305441618812 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.7520689829354854 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -7.606372712146423 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -1.942482390072722 } ], "range": { "high_52": 46.605, "low_52": 33.470001, "position_52": 41.111521972708175, "drawdown": -16.596933805385685 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 23.726876802515452, "average_weekly_range": 1.7467123651888266, "active_drawdown": -16.498389183638867 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 40.365002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 8.815206663560929, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 38.888, "fair_value": 36.36431, "trend_gap": -0.04628934375642398, "fair_value_gap": 6.890517103170654 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 109, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 33.470001, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.081631756143587, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 115, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.869999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 16.133844752499396, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "0.0% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-13.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-16.0", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-9.6", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 116, "confirmed_pivots": 10 }, "volume_ratio": 264.79900491886696, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 2, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -4.46, "bar_width": 22.3, "average_return": -4.46, "best_return": -3.63, "worst_return": -5.29 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -0.61, "bar_width": 3.05, "average_return": -0.61, "best_return": -0.61, "worst_return": -0.61 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 33.47, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 40.37; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 384, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.01, "average_return": -0.11, "median_excess_return": -0.07, "excess_observations": 384, "p10": -17.63, "p90": 13.85 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 147, "positive_rate": 46.9, "median_return": -1.56, "average_return": 3.79, "median_excess_return": 1.3, "excess_observations": 147, "p10": -31.68, "p90": 28.03 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 87, "positive_rate": 56.3, "median_return": 2.01, "average_return": 9.65, "median_excess_return": 2.04, "excess_observations": 87, "p10": -37.27, "p90": 57.29 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.846161663137673, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 12, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 41% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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