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1.2750404767194994 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.3608274715130297 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.385404766239021 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.3818957855717975 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.3305336891674293 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.3869129728337897 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.359683223572846 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.289075864917638 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.171149572579893 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave B 19.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.26; C length 2.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17.354, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729017159571258, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.615, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.553417079635814, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 22.125, "confirmation": 19.625999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave 2 19.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 21.61; Wave 3 22.12.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 47% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.59\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17.354, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729017159571258, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.615, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.553417079635814, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 19.625999, "confirmation": 22.125, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 23 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave B 19.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.26; C length 2.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17.354, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729017159571258, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.615, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.553417079635814, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 22.125, "confirmation": 19.625999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave B 19.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.26; C length 2.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17.354, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729017159571258, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.615, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.553417079635814, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 22.125, "confirmation": 19.625999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.35; Wave B 19.63.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 4.26; C length 2.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17.354, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729017159571258, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.615, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.553417079635814, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 22.125, "confirmation": 19.625999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 44, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 17.354, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.729017159571258, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 153, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 21.615, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.553417079635814, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.7788786130470022, "fair_value_gap": 16.520604687430392, "market_activity": 66.989057, "market_dynamics": 1.112871, "relative_strength": 2.596697, "roc30": 5.50787341477698, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 3.8% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.728431595720465 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 4.808142832394937 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 4.58519949963605 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 12.469494079427905 } ], "range": { "high_52": 22.555, "low_52": 19.098, "position_52": 87.56146948221001, "drawdown": -1.9064508978053634 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 11.366044896042279, "average_weekly_range": 1.4480889590468327, "active_drawdown": -0.8069939475453921 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 21.319367, "fair_value": 18.988058, "trend_gap": 3.7788786130470022, "fair_value_gap": 16.520604687430392 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 157, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 19.625999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.201947721489699, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 174, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 22.125, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 12.733114885005342, "weeks": 17, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+2.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+67.0", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.5", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 0, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 67, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 175, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 97.92637547397493, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 73, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 72, "positive_rate": 72.2, "median_return": 1.06, "bar_width": 5.300000000000001, "average_return": 0.27, "best_return": 5.12, "worst_return": -9.23 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 63, "positive_rate": 69.8, "median_return": 2.15, "bar_width": 10.75, "average_return": 1.61, "best_return": 6.87, "worst_return": -6.41 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 56, "positive_rate": 78.6, "median_return": 4.31, "bar_width": 21.549999999999997, "average_return": 3.36, "best_return": 9.93, "worst_return": -10.21 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 19.63, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 22.12; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 14, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 490, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 0.47, "average_return": 0.51, "median_excess_return": -0.13, "excess_observations": 490, "p10": -3.81, "p90": 4.89 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 175, "positive_rate": 60.0, "median_return": 1.4, "average_return": 1.56, "median_excess_return": 0.23, "excess_observations": 175, "p10": -5.45, "p90": 9.01 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 2.41, "average_return": 3.48, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -8.06, "p90": 16.04 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 19, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Price is 88% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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