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"primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 63.40; Wave 2 53.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 39.75; Wave 3 35.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 39.75; Wave 4 38.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 23.65, 18.50, 0.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 35.00; Wave 5 37.55.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 240, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 63.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.33027889908257, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 39.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.302841094547595, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 255, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.59119496855346, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 38.450001, "confirmation": 37.549999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 35.00; Wave 2 37.55.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 35.0, "confirmation": 38.450001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 4 }, { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 53.50; Wave B 38.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 18.50; C length 0.90.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.05\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 255, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.59119496855346, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 37.549999, "confirmation": 38.450001, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.070425744066112, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.41901609004132, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 63.40; Wave 2 53.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 39.75; Wave 3 35.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 39.75; Wave 4 38.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 23.65, 18.50, 0.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 35.00; Wave 5 37.55.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 240, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 63.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.33027889908257, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 39.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.302841094547595, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 255, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.59119496855346, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 38.450001, "confirmation": 37.549999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 92 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.593311263028923, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 63.40; Wave 2 53.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 39.75; Wave 3 35.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 39.75; Wave 4 38.45.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 23.65, 18.50, 0.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 35.00; Wave 5 37.55.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 58% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.78\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 19% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 240, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 63.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.33027889908257, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 39.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.302841094547595, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 255, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.59119496855346, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 38.450001, "confirmation": 37.549999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 81, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 240, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 63.400002, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 16.33027889908257, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 252, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 39.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.302841094547595, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 255, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.59119496855346, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -11.508251979446165, "fair_value_gap": -12.391097815400222, "market_activity": -37.211492, "market_dynamics": -0.250764, "relative_strength": -49.095582, "roc30": -28.88257630459425, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 11.5% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -2.84606194845734 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -4.209188668132944 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -14.755959472325982 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -40.77287410811123 } ], "range": { "high_52": 77.0, "low_52": 33.5, "position_52": 9.310342528735632, "drawdown": -51.23376753246753 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 45.22468461006176, "average_weekly_range": 7.075739186815135, "active_drawdown": -47.629008966346255 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 35.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -34.57943925233645, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 42.433334, "fair_value": 42.86094, "trend_gap": -11.508251979446165, "fair_value_gap": -12.391097815400222 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 38.450001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.857145714285716, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 37.549999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -2.3407073513470147, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "11.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-49.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-37.2", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-28.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 17 }, "volume_ratio": 31.996556532985437, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 52, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.33, "bar_width": 1.6500000000000001, "average_return": 0.41, "best_return": 50.67, "worst_return": -23.11 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 55.8, "median_return": 0.85, "bar_width": 4.25, "average_return": -0.99, "best_return": 40.73, "worst_return": -29.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 30, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 2.82, "bar_width": 14.1, "average_return": 7.76, "best_return": 64.5, "worst_return": -29.01 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 38.45; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 338, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 0.99, "average_return": 2.37, "median_excess_return": 0.7, "excess_observations": 338, "p10": -11.73, "p90": 19.31 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 141, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 7.39, "average_return": 8.96, "median_excess_return": 3.33, "excess_observations": 141, "p10": -15.34, "p90": 32.27 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 9.51, "average_return": 17.05, "median_excess_return": 6.31, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -18.63, "p90": 64.32 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 2.3968096510468633, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 32, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 11.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-11", "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", 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