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"probability", "score": 72.5826, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is falling at 1.8%. 24h move -12.6 pts. 7d move -15.6 pts. Data quality 61/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-12.6 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-15.6 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "913K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "61/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-24-20260715194822044", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "34.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 68.2667, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Technology expectation is rising at 34.5%. 24h move +30.2 pts. 7d move +18.4 pts. Data quality 27/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+30.2 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+18.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "897"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "27/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13447509/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tiktok-pro-events-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-july-24-20260717202606007", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13447509/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "0.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 64.5012, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 0.6%. 24h move -23.4 pts. 7d move -23.4 pts. Data quality 54/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-23.4 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-23.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "87K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "54/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9312502/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-candidate-c-be-the-maine-senate-democratic-nominee-on-july-27-20260706182929401", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9312502/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "49.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 61.4243, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Technology expectation is falling at 49.0%. 24h move -30.0 pts. 7d move -30.0 pts. Data quality 33/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-30.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-30.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "33/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13945716/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-chatgpt-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-july-24-20260717202606005", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13945716/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "61.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 56.8351, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Energy expectation is rising at 61.5%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move -17.0 pts. Data quality 56/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+8.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-17.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "56/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-august-31-20260718000915876-168", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "88.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 56.5553, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 88.5%. 24h move +49.0 pts. 7d move +49.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+49.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+49.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "10K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "42/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9171326/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-john-braun-earn-the-most-votes-in-the-wa-03-primary-20260706195612135", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9171326/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "14.9%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.358, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 14.9%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move -18.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+1.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-18.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "44/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10624/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-maasdam-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-07", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10624/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Scott DesJarlais be the TN-04 Republican nominee?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "93.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.0882, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 93.5%. 24h move +10.0 pts. 7d move +10.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+10.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+10.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "964"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "41/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13834924/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-scott-desjarlais-be-the-tn-04-republican-nominee-20260722204630199", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13834924/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Bea Valenti be the FL-14 Republican nominee?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "3.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 47.7008, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 3.0%. 24h move -14.5 pts. 7d move -14.5 pts. Data quality 30/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-14.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-14.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "89"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "30/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13870177/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bea-valenti-be-the-fl-14-republican-nominee-20260723180614394", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13870177/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "84.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 46.4845, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 84.5%. 24h move +17.5 pts. 7d move +32.0 pts. Data quality 31/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+17.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+32.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "31/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12059610/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-aisha-wahab-win-the-ca-14-house-seat-20260708143509237", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12059610/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "35.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 44.7707, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 35.5%. 24h move +4.0 pts. 7d move -19.0 pts. Data quality 50/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+4.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-19.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "90K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "50/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10512645/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10512645/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "10.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 43.4666, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 10.6%. 24h move -3.0 pts. 7d move -23.0 pts. Data quality 31/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-3.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-23.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "88"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "31/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13180304/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-mike-johnson-be-the-first-speaker-of-the-house-after-the-2026-midterms", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13180304/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}], "url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/", "api_url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/api/"}, "risk-watch": {"slug": "risk-watch", "label": "Risk", "eyebrow": "Risk", "title": "Risk Watch", "description": "Weak, fragile, or stretched readings that need caution.", "insight": "Weak confidence, poor quality, or negative weekly expectation.", "top_label": "MHLA \u00b7 NYSE", "top_value": "89.0%", "top_tone": "warning", "top_kind": "factor", "top_width": 100, "item_count": 12, "items": [{"label": "MHLA \u00b7 NYSE", "subtitle": "Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 \u00b7 Financials \u00b7 Insurance", "badge": "Value risk", "value": "89.0%", "value_label": "score", "score": 89.0, "tone": "warning", "rationale": "MHLA \u00b7 NYSE looks statistically cheap, but quality or confidence is weak. Treat it as a value-risk candidate until price action and fundamentals improve.", "metrics": [{"label": "Value", "value": "89.0%"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "87.0%"}, {"label": "Momentum", "value": "84.0%"}, {"label": "Confidence", "value": "34.0%"}], "links": [{"label": "Chart", "url": "/terminal/6e523d31-4d11-4173-8ca5-a1a3870082f6/", "external": true}, {"label": "Factors", "url": "/factors/ticker/6e523d31-4d11-4173-8ca5-a1a3870082f6/", "external": true}, {"label": "SVQF", "url": "/svqf/screener/?exchange=NYSE", "external": true}, {"label": "Sector", "url": "/structure/us/financials/", "external": true}, {"label": "Industry", "url": "/structure/us/financials/insurance/", "external": true}], "kind": "factor", "primary_url": "/factors/ticker/6e523d31-4d11-4173-8ca5-a1a3870082f6/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open factor page"}, {"label": "BMEZ \u00b7 NYSE", "subtitle": "BlackRock Health Sciences Trust II \u00b7 Financial Services \u00b7 Asset Management", "badge": "Value risk", "value": "74.0%", "value_label": "score", "score": 74.0, "tone": "warning", "rationale": "BMEZ \u00b7 NYSE looks statistically cheap, but quality or confidence is weak. Treat it as a value-risk candidate until price action and fundamentals improve.", "metrics": [{"label": "Value", "value": "74.0%"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "24.0%"}, {"label": "Momentum", "value": "34.0%"}, {"label": "Confidence", "value": "29.1%"}], "links": [{"label": "Chart", "url": "/terminal/42f1c595-291f-4732-a9d1-d21c35fcf26d/", "external": true}, {"label": "Factors", "url": "/factors/ticker/42f1c595-291f-4732-a9d1-d21c35fcf26d/", "external": true}, {"label": "SVQF", "url": "/svqf/screener/?exchange=NYSE", "external": true}, {"label": "Sector", "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/", "external": true}, {"label": "Industry", "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/asset-management/", "external": true}], "kind": "factor", "primary_url": "/factors/ticker/42f1c595-291f-4732-a9d1-d21c35fcf26d/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open factor page"}, {"label": "SAC \u00b7 NYSE", "subtitle": "Safeguard Acquisition Corp. \u00b7 Financial Services \u00b7 Shell Companies", "badge": "Value risk", "value": "64.0%", "value_label": "score", "score": 64.0, "tone": "warning", "rationale": "SAC \u00b7 NYSE looks statistically cheap, but quality or confidence is weak. 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"subtitle": "Industry structure \u00b7 16 constituents", "badge": "Rotation leader", "value": "2.9%", "value_label": "weekly return", "score": 2.92775564, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Staffing & Employment Services is moving 2.9% for the week with 66.7% advancing breadth and trend signal 1.", "metrics": [{"label": "Breadth", "value": "66.7%"}, {"label": "Adv", "value": "10"}, {"label": "Decl", "value": "5"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "62.2M"}], "links": [{"label": "Structure", "url": "/structure/us/industrials/staffing-employment-services/", "external": true}], "kind": "structure", "primary_url": "/structure/us/industrials/staffing-employment-services/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open structure chart"}, {"label": "Utilities - Regulated Gas \u00b7 US", "subtitle": "Industry structure \u00b7 16 constituents", "badge": "Rotation leader", "value": "2.9%", "value_label": "weekly return", "score": 2.85708955, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Utilities - Regulated 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"130.6M"}], "links": [{"label": "Structure", "url": "/structure/us/consumer-cyclical/auto-truck-dealerships/", "external": true}], "kind": "structure", "primary_url": "/structure/us/consumer-cyclical/auto-truck-dealerships/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open structure chart"}], "url": "/market-radar/countries/us/sector-rotation/", "api_url": "/market-radar/countries/us/sector-rotation/api/"}, {"slug": "prediction-pulse", "label": "Predictions", "eyebrow": "Events", "title": "Predictions", "description": "Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.", "insight": "Relevant event markets with active probability movement.", "top_label": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?", "top_value": "1.8%", "top_tone": "neutral", "top_kind": "prediction", "top_width": 100, "item_count": 12, "items": [{"label": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "1.8%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 72.5826, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is falling at 1.8%. 24h move -12.6 pts. 7d move -15.6 pts. Data quality 61/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-12.6 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-15.6 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "913K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "61/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-24-20260715194822044", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "34.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 68.2667, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Technology expectation is rising at 34.5%. 24h move +30.2 pts. 7d move +18.4 pts. Data quality 27/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+30.2 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+18.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "897"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "27/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13447509/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tiktok-pro-events-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-july-24-20260717202606007", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13447509/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "0.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 64.5012, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 0.6%. 24h move -23.4 pts. 7d move -23.4 pts. Data quality 54/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-23.4 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-23.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "87K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "54/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9312502/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-candidate-c-be-the-maine-senate-democratic-nominee-on-july-27-20260706182929401", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9312502/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "49.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 61.4243, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Technology expectation is falling at 49.0%. 24h move -30.0 pts. 7d move -30.0 pts. Data quality 33/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-30.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-30.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "33/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13945716/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-chatgpt-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-july-24-20260717202606005", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13945716/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "61.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 56.8351, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Energy expectation is rising at 61.5%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move -17.0 pts. Data quality 56/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+8.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-17.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "56/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-august-31-20260718000915876-168", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "88.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 56.5553, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 88.5%. 24h move +49.0 pts. 7d move +49.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+49.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+49.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "10K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "42/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9171326/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-john-braun-earn-the-most-votes-in-the-wa-03-primary-20260706195612135", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9171326/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "14.9%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.358, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 14.9%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move -18.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+1.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-18.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "44/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10624/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-maasdam-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-07", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10624/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Scott DesJarlais be the TN-04 Republican nominee?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "93.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.0882, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 93.5%. 24h move +10.0 pts. 7d move +10.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+10.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+10.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "964"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "41/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13834924/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-scott-desjarlais-be-the-tn-04-republican-nominee-20260722204630199", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13834924/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Bea Valenti be the FL-14 Republican nominee?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "3.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 47.7008, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 3.0%. 24h move -14.5 pts. 7d move -14.5 pts. Data quality 30/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-14.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-14.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "89"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "30/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13870177/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bea-valenti-be-the-fl-14-republican-nominee-20260723180614394", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13870177/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "84.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 46.4845, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 84.5%. 24h move +17.5 pts. 7d move +32.0 pts. Data quality 31/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+17.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+32.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "31/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12059610/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-aisha-wahab-win-the-ca-14-house-seat-20260708143509237", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12059610/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "35.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 44.7707, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 35.5%. 24h move +4.0 pts. 7d move -19.0 pts. Data quality 50/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+4.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-19.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "90K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "50/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10512645/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10512645/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "10.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 43.4666, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 10.6%. 24h move -3.0 pts. 7d move -23.0 pts. Data quality 31/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-3.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-23.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "88"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "31/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13180304/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-mike-johnson-be-the-first-speaker-of-the-house-after-the-2026-midterms", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13180304/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}], "url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/", "api_url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/api/"}, {"slug": "risk-watch", "label": "Risk", "eyebrow": "Risk", "title": "Risk Watch", "description": "Weak, fragile, or stretched readings that need caution.", "insight": "Weak confidence, poor quality, or negative weekly expectation.", "top_label": "MHLA \u00b7 NYSE", "top_value": "89.0%", "top_tone": "warning", "top_kind": "factor", "top_width": 100, "item_count": 12, "items": [{"label": "MHLA \u00b7 NYSE", "subtitle": "Maiden Holdings, Ltd. 6.625 NT 2046 \u00b7 Financials \u00b7 Insurance", "badge": "Value risk", "value": "89.0%", "value_label": "score", "score": 89.0, "tone": "warning", "rationale": "MHLA \u00b7 NYSE looks statistically cheap, but quality or confidence is weak. Treat it as a value-risk candidate until price action and fundamentals improve.", "metrics": [{"label": "Value", "value": "89.0%"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "87.0%"}, {"label": "Momentum", "value": "84.0%"}, {"label": "Confidence", "value": "34.0%"}], "links": [{"label": "Chart", "url": "/terminal/6e523d31-4d11-4173-8ca5-a1a3870082f6/", "external": true}, {"label": "Factors", "url": "/factors/ticker/6e523d31-4d11-4173-8ca5-a1a3870082f6/", "external": true}, {"label": "SVQF", "url": "/svqf/screener/?exchange=NYSE", "external": true}, {"label": "Sector", "url": "/structure/us/financials/", "external": true}, {"label": "Industry", "url": "/structure/us/financials/insurance/", "external": true}], "kind": "factor", "primary_url": "/factors/ticker/6e523d31-4d11-4173-8ca5-a1a3870082f6/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open factor page"}, {"label": "BMEZ \u00b7 NYSE", "subtitle": "BlackRock Health Sciences Trust II \u00b7 Financial Services \u00b7 Asset Management", "badge": "Value risk", "value": "74.0%", "value_label": "score", "score": 74.0, "tone": "warning", "rationale": "BMEZ \u00b7 NYSE looks statistically cheap, but quality or confidence is weak. Treat it as a value-risk candidate until price action and fundamentals improve.", "metrics": [{"label": "Value", "value": "74.0%"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "24.0%"}, {"label": "Momentum", "value": "34.0%"}, {"label": "Confidence", "value": "29.1%"}], "links": [{"label": "Chart", "url": "/terminal/42f1c595-291f-4732-a9d1-d21c35fcf26d/", "external": true}, {"label": "Factors", "url": "/factors/ticker/42f1c595-291f-4732-a9d1-d21c35fcf26d/", "external": true}, {"label": "SVQF", "url": "/svqf/screener/?exchange=NYSE", "external": true}, {"label": "Sector", "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/", "external": true}, {"label": "Industry", "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/asset-management/", "external": true}], "kind": "factor", "primary_url": "/factors/ticker/42f1c595-291f-4732-a9d1-d21c35fcf26d/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open factor page"}, {"label": "SAC \u00b7 NYSE", "subtitle": "Safeguard Acquisition Corp. \u00b7 Financial Services \u00b7 Shell Companies", "badge": "Value risk", "value": "64.0%", "value_label": "score", "score": 64.0, "tone": "warning", "rationale": "SAC \u00b7 NYSE looks statistically cheap, but quality or confidence is weak. 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Treat it as a value-risk candidate until price action and fundamentals improve.", "metrics": [{"label": "Value", "value": "64.0%"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "65.0%"}, {"label": "Momentum", "value": "64.0%"}, {"label": "Confidence", "value": "29.4%"}], "links": [{"label": "Chart", "url": "/terminal/9d1340ac-318e-4c2a-b11d-bb16b6ab8859/", "external": true}, {"label": "Factors", "url": "/factors/ticker/9d1340ac-318e-4c2a-b11d-bb16b6ab8859/", "external": true}, {"label": "SVQF", "url": "/svqf/screener/?exchange=NYSE", "external": true}, {"label": "Sector", "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/", "external": true}, {"label": "Industry", "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/shell-companies/", "external": true}], "kind": "factor", "primary_url": "/factors/ticker/9d1340ac-318e-4c2a-b11d-bb16b6ab8859/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open factor page"}]}, "global_insights": null, "global_spotlight": null, "country_insights": {"index_return": "-1.5%", "index_breadth": "46.9%", "sector_count": 13, "industry_count": 156, "hot_sectors": [{"label": "Energy", "value": "1.8%", "raw": 1.77824223, "width": 7, "url": "/structure/us/energy/", "rank": 1, "meta": "226 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Real Estate", "value": "1.3%", "raw": 1.33774393, "width": 5, "url": "/structure/us/real-estate/", "rank": 2, "meta": "248 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Financials", "value": "0.7%", "raw": 0.68990682, "width": 4, "url": "/structure/us/financials/", "rank": 3, "meta": "7 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Financial Services", "value": "0.1%", "raw": 0.11902117, "width": 4, "url": "/structure/us/financial-services/", "rank": 4, "meta": "991 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Consumer Cyclical", "value": "0.0%", "raw": 0.00289786, "width": 4, "url": "/structure/us/consumer-cyclical/", "rank": 5, "meta": "499 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Capital Markets", "value": "0.0%", "raw": 0, "width": 4, "url": "/structure/us/capital-markets/", "rank": 6, "meta": "1 constituents", "tone": "warning"}], "cold_sectors": [{"label": "Technology", "value": "-4.1%", "raw": -4.0780385, "width": 16, "url": "/structure/us/technology/", "rank": 1, "meta": "702 constituents", "tone": "warning"}, {"label": "Healthcare", "value": "-2.8%", "raw": -2.77139707, "width": 11, "url": "/structure/us/healthcare/", "rank": 2, "meta": "958 constituents", "tone": "warning"}, {"label": "Basic Materials", "value": "-2.3%", "raw": -2.33146725, "width": 9, "url": "/structure/us/basic-materials/", "rank": 3, "meta": "224 constituents", "tone": "warning"}, {"label": "Industrials", "value": "-2.2%", "raw": -2.20516245, "width": 8, "url": "/structure/us/industrials/", "rank": 4, "meta": "636 constituents", "tone": "warning"}, {"label": "Consumer Defensive", "value": "-1.7%", "raw": -1.73572516, "width": 6, "url": "/structure/us/consumer-defensive/", "rank": 5, "meta": "219 constituents", "tone": "warning"}, {"label": "Utilities", "value": "-1.4%", "raw": -1.43377284, "width": 5, "url": "/structure/us/utilities/", "rank": 6, "meta": "109 constituents", "tone": "warning"}], "hot_industries": [{"label": "Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing", "value": "6.9%", "raw": 6.90625995, "width": 27, "url": "/structure/us/energy/oil-gas-refining-marketing/", "rank": 1, "meta": "19 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Trucking", "value": "5.6%", "raw": 5.58497016, "width": 22, "url": "/structure/us/industrials/trucking/", "rank": 2, "meta": "15 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Recreational Vehicles", "value": "4.9%", "raw": 4.86332926, "width": 19, "url": "/structure/us/consumer-cyclical/recreational-vehicles/", "rank": 3, "meta": "11 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Oil & Gas E&P", "value": "4.8%", "raw": 4.8484248, "width": 19, "url": "/structure/us/energy/oil-gas-ep/", "rank": 4, "meta": "61 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Business Equipment & Supplies", "value": "4.8%", "raw": 4.7764781, "width": 19, "url": "/structure/us/industrials/business-equipment-supplies/", "rank": 5, "meta": "5 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Reit - Healthcare Facilities", "value": "4.8%", "raw": 4.76196252, "width": 19, "url": "/structure/us/real-estate/reit-healthcare-facilities/", "rank": 6, "meta": "16 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Reit - Industrial", "value": "4.0%", "raw": 4.0194255, "width": 16, "url": "/structure/us/real-estate/reit-industrial/", "rank": 7, "meta": "17 constituents", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Reit - Retail", "value": "3.8%", "raw": 3.84569032, "width": 15, "url": "/structure/us/real-estate/reit-retail/", "rank": 8, "meta": "28 constituents", "tone": "positive"}]}}