{"slug": "prediction-pulse", "label": "Predictions", "eyebrow": "Events", "title": "Predictions", "description": "Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.", "insight": "Relevant event markets with active probability movement.", "top_label": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?", "top_value": "1.8%", "top_tone": "neutral", "top_kind": "prediction", "top_width": 100, "item_count": 12, "items": [{"label": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "1.8%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 71.6955, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is falling at 1.8%. 24h move -12.6 pts. 7d move -14.6 pts. Data quality 61/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-12.6 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-14.6 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "915K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "61/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-24-20260715194822044", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "37.3%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 65.1074, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Technology expectation is rising at 37.3%. 24h move +32.8 pts. 7d move +21.2 pts. Data quality 26/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+32.8 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+21.2 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "905"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "26/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13447509/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tiktok-pro-events-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-july-24-20260717202606007", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13447509/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "0.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 64.588, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 0.6%. 24h move -23.4 pts. 7d move -23.4 pts. Data quality 54/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-23.4 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-23.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "87K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "54/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9312502/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-candidate-c-be-the-maine-senate-democratic-nominee-on-july-27-20260706182929401", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9312502/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "48.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 61.7335, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Technology expectation is falling at 48.5%. 24h move -30.5 pts. 7d move -30.5 pts. Data quality 34/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-30.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-30.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "34/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13945716/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-chatgpt-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-july-24-20260717202606005", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13945716/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "89.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 57.2381, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 89.5%. 24h move +50.0 pts. 7d move +50.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+50.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+50.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "10K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "44/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9171326/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-john-braun-earn-the-most-votes-in-the-wa-03-primary-20260706195612135", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9171326/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "61.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 52.3079, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Energy expectation is rising at 61.5%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move -17.0 pts. Data quality 57/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+8.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-17.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "97K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "57/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-august-31-20260718000915876-168", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Scott DesJarlais be the TN-04 Republican nominee?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "93.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.4569, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 93.5%. 24h move +10.0 pts. 7d move +10.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+10.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+10.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "964"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "42/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13834924/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-scott-desjarlais-be-the-tn-04-republican-nominee-20260722204630199", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13834924/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "15.3%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 48.835, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 15.3%. 24h move +5.6 pts. 7d move -17.6 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+5.6 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-17.6 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "44/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10624/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-maasdam-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-mi-07", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10624/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Bea Valenti be the FL-14 Republican nominee?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "2.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 48.3824, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 2.6%. 24h move -14.8 pts. 7d move -14.8 pts. Data quality 31/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-14.8 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-14.8 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "89"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "31/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13870177/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bea-valenti-be-the-fl-14-republican-nominee-20260723180614394", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13870177/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "84.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 46.4845, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 84.5%. 24h move +29.0 pts. 7d move +32.0 pts. Data quality 31/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+29.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+32.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "31/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12059610/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-aisha-wahab-win-the-ca-14-house-seat-20260708143509237", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12059610/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Trump say \"Gulf of America\" or \"Gulf of Trump\" during White House Correspondents Dinner?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "48.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 42.3072, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 48.5%. 24h move -5.0 pts. 7d move -5.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-5.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-5.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "98"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "29/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13909460/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-say-gulf-of-america-or-gulf-of-trump-during-white-house-correspondents-dinner-20260715212255811", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13909460/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Watch", "value": "0.2%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 40.137, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 0.2%. 24h move -0.1 pts. 7d move -5.2 pts. Data quality 55/100.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-0.1 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-5.2 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "95K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "55/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/9256149/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-candidate-b-be-the-maine-senate-democratic-nominee-on-july-27-20260706182929400", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/9256149/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}], "url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/", "api_url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/api/"}