{"slug": "prediction-pulse", "label": "Predictions", "eyebrow": "Events", "title": "Predictions", "description": "Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.", "insight": "Relevant event markets with active probability movement.", "top_label": "Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?", "top_value": "4.8%", "items": [{"label": "Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "4.8%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 58.8578, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Technology expectation is falling at 4.6%. 24h move -11.4 pts. 7d move -11.4 pts. Data quality 28/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-11.4 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-11.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "98"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "28/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/837608/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-google-gemini-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-june-12-20260605150701059", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/837608/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "74.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 55.9508, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 74.0%. 24h move +11.0 pts. 7d move +11.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+11.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+11.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "41/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10689/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-stefany-shaheen-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-nh-01", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10689/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will OpenAI raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "17.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 55.5914, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Technology expectation is falling at 17.5%. 24h move -23.5 pts. 7d move -26.0 pts. Data quality 30/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-23.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-26.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "89"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "30/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10550/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-openai-raise-between-90b-and-100b-in-its-ipo", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10550/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "80.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.9515, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 80.5%. 24h move -11.0 pts. 7d move +7.5 pts. Data quality 32/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-11.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+7.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "902"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "32/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10409/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-ca-27-house-seat", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10409/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "28.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.2011, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 28.5%. 24h move -1.5 pts. 7d move -22.0 pts. Data quality 42/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-1.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-22.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "42/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10532/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/steve-bannon-exonerated-by-june-30", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10532/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "28.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 46.5849, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Technology expectation is rising at 28.5%. 24h move +6.0 pts. 7d move +6.0 pts. Data quality 27/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+6.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+6.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "91"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "27/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/838622/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-google-gemini-be-2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-june-12-20260605151410850", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/838622/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "59.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 44.107, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 59.0%. 24h move +7.5 pts. 7d move +3.0 pts. Data quality 44/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+7.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+3.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "44/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/291135/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-darializa-avila-chevalier-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ny-13", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/291135/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "51.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 43.9625, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 51.0%. 24h move -5.0 pts. 7d move -6.5 pts. Data quality 41/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-5.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-6.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "41/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10347/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ny-01-house-seat", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10347/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "32.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 43.9302, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 32.0%. 24h move +5.0 pts. 7d move -7.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+5.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-7.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "10K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "41/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/1677/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-ny-21-house-seat", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/1677/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Technology", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "29.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 41.2121, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Technology expectation is falling at 29.5%. 24h move -8.0 pts. 7d move -8.0 pts. Data quality 26/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-8.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-8.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "26/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/822494/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-instants-an-instagram-app-be-1-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-june-12-20260605150701062", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/822494/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Watch", "value": "1.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 40.5756, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is steady at 1.0%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 56/100.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-0.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-0.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "100K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "56/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/784234/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-10-2026", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/784234/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Politics & Policy", "badge": "High Conviction", "value": "87.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 38.7487, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 87.0%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 36/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+0.5 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-0.5 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "930"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "36/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/10527/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-mallory-dittmer-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-sc-05", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/10527/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}], "url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/", "api_url": "/market-radar/countries/us/prediction-pulse/api/"}