{"slug": "prediction-pulse", "label": "Predictions", "eyebrow": "Events", "title": "Predictions", "description": "Relevant probability moves from prediction markets.", "insight": "Relevant event markets with active probability movement.", "top_label": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?", "top_value": "1.8%", "top_tone": "neutral", "top_kind": "prediction", "top_width": 100, "item_count": 12, "items": [{"label": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "1.8%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 72.5826, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is falling at 1.8%. 24h move -12.6 pts. 7d move -15.6 pts. Data quality 61/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-12.6 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-15.6 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "913K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "61/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-24-20260715194822044", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/11947671/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "35.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 68.8457, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Energy expectation is rising at 35.6%. 24h move +31.8 pts. 7d move +31.8 pts. Data quality 60/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+31.8 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+31.8 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "907K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "60/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/6814670/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-wti-reach-100-in-july-2026-928", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/6814670/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Crypto", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "0.3%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 64.637, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Crypto expectation is falling at 0.3%. 24h move -18.2 pts. 7d move -7.7 pts. Data quality 55/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-18.2 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-7.7 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "98K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "55/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12767341/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/bitcoin-above-68k-on-july-24-2026", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12767341/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Crypto", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "92.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 64.0372, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Crypto expectation is rising at 92.5%. 24h move +7.0 pts. 7d move +43.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+7.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+43.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "95K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "55/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12273273/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/bitcoin-above-64k-on-july-24-2026", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12273273/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "15.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 61.7633, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is falling at 15.5%. 24h move -40.0 pts. 7d move -46.0 pts. Data quality 53/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-40.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-46.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "100K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "53/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13187340/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-80-in-july-2026", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13187340/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Crypto", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "99.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 60.0156, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Crypto expectation is rising at 99.6%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move +8.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+8.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+8.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "97K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "55/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12976841/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/bitcoin-above-62k-on-july-24-2026", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12976841/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "61.5%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 56.8351, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Energy expectation is rising at 61.5%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move -17.0 pts. Data quality 56/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+8.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-17.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "96K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "56/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-august-31-20260718000915876-168", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12335043/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "99.6%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 52.1184, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Energy expectation is rising at 99.6%. 24h move +12.6 pts. 7d move +12.0 pts. Data quality 61/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+12.6 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+12.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "882K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "61/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/11976919/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-july-22-20260716224448966", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/11976919/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 23?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Crypto", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "1.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 51.3928, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Crypto expectation is falling at 1.0%. 24h move -35.0 pts. 7d move -35.0 pts. Data quality 52/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-35.0 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-35.0 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "99K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "52/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13754010/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-66k-on-july-23", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13754010/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 24?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Crypto", "badge": "Probability Surge", "value": "99.8%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.9572, "tone": "positive", "rationale": "Crypto expectation is rising at 99.8%. 24h move +5.3 pts. 7d move +3.8 pts. Data quality 48/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "+5.3 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "+3.8 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "10K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "48/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/12585005/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/ethereum-above-1700-on-july-24-2026", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/12585005/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on July 23?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Crypto", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "0.0%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.532, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Crypto expectation is falling at 0.0%. 24h move -47.4 pts. 7d move -47.4 pts. Data quality 48/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-47.4 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-47.4 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "9K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "48/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/13681571/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-ethereum-reach-1950-on-july-23", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/13681571/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}, {"label": "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?", "subtitle": "Polymarket \u00b7 Energy", "badge": "Probability Fade", "value": "0.8%", "value_label": "probability", "score": 49.0627, "tone": "neutral", "rationale": "Energy expectation is falling at 0.8%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -70.6 pts. Data quality 63/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "metrics": [{"label": "24h", "value": "-0.2 pts"}, {"label": "7d", "value": "-70.6 pts"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "940K"}, {"label": "Quality", "value": "63/100"}], "links": [{"label": "Insight", "url": "/predictions/markets/7003085/", "external": true}, {"label": "Market", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026-367", "external": true}], "kind": "prediction", "primary_url": "/predictions/markets/7003085/", "primary_external": true, "primary_label": "Open prediction insight"}], "url": "/market-radar/prediction-pulse/", "api_url": "/market-radar/prediction-pulse/api/"}