Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 36.0% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 36.0%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 26/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 36.0%
Signal Watch
Score 20
Freshness 20s
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 92 Liquidity 239 Spread 0.6 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality26.0
Momentum11.9
Urgency25.0
7d Move-0.5 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 36.0%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 26/100.

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