{"title": "Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?", "provider": "Polymarket", "theme": "Politics & Policy", "probability": 47.15, "volume": 950.6196, "liquidity": 94.4242, "signal": "Probability Fade", "score": 48.9642, "narrative": "Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 47.2%. 24h move -31.1 pts. 7d move -31.1 pts. Data quality 29/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.", "history": {"times": [1781270667, 1781270967, 1781271267, 1781271567, 1781271867, 1781272167, 1781272467, 1781272767, 1781273067, 1781273367, 1781273667, 1781273967, 1781274267, 1781274568, 1781274867, 1781275167, 1781275467, 1781275767, 1781276067, 1781276367, 1781276667, 1781276967], "probability": [78.25, 78.25, 78.25, 50.9, 50.9, 48.55, 48.55, 48.55, 45.75, 45.75, 45.75, 45.6, 45.6, 45.6, 45.4, 45.4, 49.05, 49.05, 49.05, 47.15, 47.15, 47.15], "volume": [924.4996, 924.4996, 924.4996, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196, 950.6196], "liquidity": [53.9077, 53.9077, 53.9077, 64.3576, 64.3576, 70.0867, 70.0867, 70.0867, 86.1279, 86.1279, 86.1279, 81.8143, 81.8143, 81.8143, 79.6003, 79.6003, 94.0513, 94.0513, 94.0513, 94.4242, 94.4242, 94.4242], "spread": [0.313, 0.313, 0.313, 0.814, 0.814, 0.767, 0.767, 0.767, 0.711, 0.711, 0.711, 0.708, 0.708, 0.708, 0.704, 0.704, 0.777, 0.777, 0.777, 0.739, 0.739, 0.739]}, "anatomy": {"labels": ["Quality", "Momentum", "Urgency", "Score"], "values": [29.2196, 83.4, 25.0, 48.9642]}, "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-republican-senate-incumbents-not-win-in-exactly-two-nominating-elections-in-the-2026-cycle"}