{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00005816-28c6-41ef-bffd-5115574e23e8", "symbol": "SMCI", "name": "Super Micro Computer Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.203, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.494, "architecture_energy": 9.066, "architecture_maturity": 21.37, "architecture_confidence": 47.056, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.27, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 20.13, "deceleration": 64.66, "rotation_down": 41.16, "downward_expansion": 33.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.081333, 29.090545, 30.812762, 30.447204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.13, "trend_reference": 30.392, "distance_from_trend": 0.024283, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.503199, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.3005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.270761, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.094532, "excess_performance": -0.281985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024283, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031217, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.3005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.094532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.709006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175099228, "relative_activity": 0.751894, "balance": 0.709006, "dry_up": 0.940927, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233186, "annualized_volatility": 1.094614, "from_high_reference": -0.470398, "from_low_reference": 0.598049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.392, "fair_value_reference": 44.503199, "structural_low": 19.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.071447, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.057228, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.984151, "worst_return": -0.119808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.171632, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.113557, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 3.181221, "worst_return": -0.036736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.384477, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.502207, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.820869, "worst_return": -0.053016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.29252, "energy": 18.871412, "activity_lines": [ 28.94, 32.131818, 31.398667, 30.973118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.18, "volume": 139047118, "typical_volume": 225073978.5, "trend": 30.463, "fair_value": 44.522891, "relative_strength": -40.302228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.658455, "energy": 29.072296, "activity_lines": [ 27.181333, 30.400909, 30.810286, 30.55286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.1, "volume": 375581421, "typical_volume": 237111272.45, "trend": 30.445, "fair_value": 44.501417, "relative_strength": -23.147888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.392157, "energy": 20.633682, "activity_lines": [ 27.814667, 29.949818, 30.82481, 30.529441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.4, "volume": 186755278, "typical_volume": 241259227.8, "trend": 30.359667, "fair_value": 44.466744, "relative_strength": -26.366808, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.768226, "energy": 15.950019, "activity_lines": [ 27.918667, 29.206727, 30.68319, 30.397505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.13, "volume": 175099228, "typical_volume": 232877613.1, "trend": 30.392, "fair_value": 44.503199, "relative_strength": -22.270761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.494036, "energy": 9.066443, "activity_lines": [ 29.081333, 29.090545, 30.812762, 30.447204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }