{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00034aba-e745-4844-b4f1-1ed337531e00", "symbol": "EXEC", "name": "Exelon Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.905, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.688, "architecture_energy": 7.86, "architecture_maturity": 21.341, "architecture_confidence": 68.69, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.86, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 53.98, "deceleration": 81.21, "rotation_down": 27.34, "downward_expansion": 22.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.371333, 40.710091, 40.199179, 40.218074 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.509998, "trend_reference": 39.953385, "distance_from_trend": -0.011098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.638965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108618, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.772193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078504, "excess_performance": -0.095743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108618, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045486, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.69419, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.69419, "dry_up": 1.158163, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038947, "annualized_volatility": 0.280988, "from_high_reference": -0.100717, "from_low_reference": 0.120379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.953385, "fair_value_reference": 35.638965, "structural_low": 36.450962, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.019387, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.007469, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.112914, "worst_return": -0.094113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035254, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.014795, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.052931, "worst_return": -0.061791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.07401, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.148366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064972, "worst_return": -0.087934, 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"trend": 39.765466, "fair_value": 35.548933, "relative_strength": -11.642583, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.5863, "energy": 56.488661, "activity_lines": [ 41.448, 40.991164, 40.304919, 40.228884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.955002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.0, "trend": 39.86709, "fair_value": 35.595919, "relative_strength": -14.802456, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.540571, "energy": 23.855385, "activity_lines": [ 40.933334, 40.901592, 40.26393, 40.241113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.509998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 49.0, "trend": 39.953385, "fair_value": 35.638965, "relative_strength": -17.772193, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.687944, "energy": 7.860247, "activity_lines": [ 40.371333, 40.710091, 40.199179, 40.218074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }