{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0003abb9-20c2-4361-ae90-9835ea847c54", "symbol": "DSV", "name": "DSV A/S", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.84, "architecture_energy": 80.428, "architecture_maturity": 14.496, "architecture_confidence": 80.923, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.69, "rotation_up": 16.28, "upward_expansion": 24.15, "deceleration": 28.55, "rotation_down": 75.38, "downward_expansion": 88.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 194.073335, 203.074546, 207.849999, 209.888615 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 180.350006, "trend_reference": 213.736447, "distance_from_trend": -0.156204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 175.338328, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.062117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259029, "excess_performance": -0.433276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015666, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270621, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.026746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15, "relative_activity": 0.141777, "balance": 0.026746, "dry_up": 4.782609, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065492, "annualized_volatility": 0.364959, "from_high_reference": -0.27005, "from_low_reference": 0.108154 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 213.736447, "fair_value_reference": 175.338328, "structural_low": 178.100006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007434, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.007532, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.249922, "worst_return": -0.173257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.105193, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.058405, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.264346, "worst_return": -0.211714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091653, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.026952, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.435044, "worst_return": -0.285502, 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"typical_volume": 84.5, "trend": 215.648066, "fair_value": 175.009292, "relative_strength": -20.016011, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.26937, "energy": 22.646613, "activity_lines": [ 213.290001, 213.327272, 213.249889, 213.945511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 187.399994, "volume": 411, "typical_volume": 105.05, "trend": 214.983818, "fair_value": 175.194415, "relative_strength": -22.477681, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.078426, "energy": 57.192103, "activity_lines": [ 204.139999, 208.666362, 210.841665, 212.123054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 180.350006, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 105.8, "trend": 213.736447, "fair_value": 175.338328, "relative_strength": -27.062117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.840343, "energy": 80.427719, "activity_lines": [ 194.073335, 203.074546, 207.849999, 209.888615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }