{ "ticker": { "uuid": "000804ab-17db-4bc6-957f-1eff39c682a6", "symbol": "AKG", "name": "AKG Exim Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.425, "architecture_energy": 76.27, "architecture_maturity": 59.541, "architecture_confidence": 81.663, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.2, "rotation_up": 10.02, "upward_expansion": 15.47, "deceleration": 37.93, "rotation_down": 75.48, "downward_expansion": 88.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.669333, 10.123455, 10.591429, 10.909914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.7, "trend_reference": 11.512, "distance_from_trend": -0.244267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.2675, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.496163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.841829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.400826, "excess_performance": -0.357117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.496163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.400826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.172885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 952535, "relative_activity": 7.355395, "balance": 0.172885, "dry_up": 2.649903, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111229, "annualized_volatility": 0.399838, "from_high_reference": -0.422694, "from_low_reference": 0.079404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.512, "fair_value_reference": 17.2675, "structural_low": 8.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.010293, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.00665, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.678141, "worst_return": -0.238298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014008, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.035371, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.904085, "worst_return": -0.245892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.039655, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021473, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.026465, "worst_return": -0.319025, "sufficient": true }, { 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067371, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.323794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086156, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163207, 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"activity_lines": [ 10.848, 10.959455, 11.085857, 11.431591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.91, "volume": 146280, "typical_volume": 125614.8, "trend": 11.791667, "fair_value": 17.623141, "relative_strength": -17.022437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.548802, "energy": 57.28598, "activity_lines": [ 10.546667, 10.747636, 10.964238, 11.305032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.46, "volume": 195037, "typical_volume": 87051.75, "trend": 11.721333, "fair_value": 17.511026, "relative_strength": -10.038957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.626125, "energy": 39.297928, "activity_lines": [ 10.482667, 10.665091, 10.911095, 11.219118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.86, "volume": 78814, "typical_volume": 86408.6, "trend": 11.631333, "fair_value": 17.387692, "relative_strength": -16.978529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.016021, "energy": 51.849764, "activity_lines": [ 10.244, 10.487818, 10.803714, 11.099032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.7, "volume": 952535, "typical_volume": 129501.55, "trend": 11.512, "fair_value": 17.2675, "relative_strength": -26.841829, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.425384, "energy": 76.269775, "activity_lines": [ 9.669333, 10.123455, 10.591429, 10.909914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }