{ "ticker": { "uuid": "001513af-3680-4a8c-b61c-f375a07c9cfa", "symbol": "EC", "name": "Ecopetrol SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.595, "architecture_energy": 57.76, "architecture_maturity": 36.574, "architecture_confidence": 91.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.94, "rotation_up": 65.65, "upward_expansion": 86.13, "deceleration": 47.44, "rotation_down": 16.13, "downward_expansion": 10.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.451333, 16.060909, 15.340758, 14.754009 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.78, "trend_reference": 13.900223, "distance_from_trend": 0.207175, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.982739, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.868027, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 27.151344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.437867, "excess_performance": 0.312242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.207175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181064, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.868027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.326424, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.271513, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150316, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.437867, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.889962, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12326565, "relative_activity": 0.867577, "balance": 2.889962, "dry_up": 0.814173, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089735, "annualized_volatility": 0.384884, "from_high_reference": -0.054648, "from_low_reference": 1.081079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.900223, "fair_value_reference": 8.982739, "structural_low": 11.031118, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.019623, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.015573, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.164706, "worst_return": -0.164647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.064551, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.061126, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.42446, "worst_return": -0.137508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085238, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049634, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.516412, "worst_return": -0.200956, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.716867, "energy": 39.856232, "activity_lines": [ 15.684667, 15.609273, 14.916859, 14.340418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.77, "volume": 11710739, "typical_volume": 14576390.85, "trend": 13.686634, "fair_value": 8.917769, "relative_strength": 32.84802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.704107, "energy": 48.265513, "activity_lines": [ 16.134667, 15.860727, 15.136772, 14.554437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.78, "volume": 12326565, "typical_volume": 14208035.0, "trend": 13.900223, "fair_value": 8.982739, "relative_strength": 27.151344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.594929, "energy": 57.760004, "activity_lines": [ 16.451333, 16.060909, 15.340758, 14.754009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }