{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00195b94-56e2-484e-b914-5183cf626108", "symbol": "ELAN", "name": "Elanco Animal Health", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.714, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.222, "architecture_energy": 7.923, "architecture_maturity": 32.473, "architecture_confidence": 77.462, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.98, "rotation_up": 36.29, "upward_expansion": 36.38, "deceleration": 35.43, "rotation_down": 31.07, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.486, 24.644545, 24.05981, 23.919355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.12, "trend_reference": 23.933667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075779, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.403654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.718031, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122222, "excess_performance": -0.247847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199762, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.146854, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67617743, "relative_activity": 2.379897, "balance": 1.146854, "dry_up": 1.219896, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115558, "annualized_volatility": 0.471583, "from_high_reference": -0.209435, "from_low_reference": 0.309651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.933667, "fair_value_reference": 16.403654, "structural_low": 19.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007885, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021776, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.160359, "worst_return": -0.199712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.126676, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088277, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.019365, "worst_return": -0.328767, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.175108, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.214046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.160058, "worst_return": -0.190159, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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28.952278, "energy": 36.718507, "activity_lines": [ 24.694667, 24.116909, 23.593429, 23.663097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.83, "volume": 20022468, "typical_volume": 26657644.7, "trend": 23.773333, "fair_value": 16.162692, "relative_strength": 7.613091, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.721128, "energy": 49.5593, "activity_lines": [ 25.119333, 24.531455, 23.813143, 23.803376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.91, "volume": 24497999, "typical_volume": 27004334.25, "trend": 23.850333, "fair_value": 16.245513, "relative_strength": 3.772477, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.754581, "energy": 41.194191, "activity_lines": [ 25.126667, 24.739091, 23.947952, 23.87671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.37, "volume": 26500750, "typical_volume": 27424620.4, "trend": 23.978667, "fair_value": 16.339872, "relative_strength": 7.841644, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.193719, "energy": 47.232863, "activity_lines": [ 25.574667, 25.120364, 24.214429, 24.039269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.12, "volume": 67617743, "typical_volume": 28412048.95, "trend": 23.933667, "fair_value": 16.403654, "relative_strength": -12.718031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.221615, "energy": 7.923132, "activity_lines": [ 24.486, 24.644545, 24.05981, 23.919355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }