{ "ticker": { "uuid": "001a5c75-3cf6-4837-be4b-c270697fafdf", "symbol": "CTXT11", "name": "Fundo Invest Imobiliario Centro Textil Internacional - Cotas Fund", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.937, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.775, "architecture_energy": 22.441, "architecture_maturity": 42.15, "architecture_confidence": 64.293, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.26, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 13.16, "deceleration": 63.65, "rotation_down": 35.73, "downward_expansion": 60.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.865333, 4.855636, 4.931143, 5.039026 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.94, "trend_reference": 5.172738, "distance_from_trend": -0.044993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.442065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336206, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.226762, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029167, "excess_performance": 0.086215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336206, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056198, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110, "relative_activity": 0.364058, "balance": 0.220619, "dry_up": 1.892272, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076145, "annualized_volatility": 0.31082, "from_high_reference": -0.268148, "from_low_reference": 0.112613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.172738, "fair_value_reference": 7.442065, "structural_low": 4.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.018676, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.708333, "median_excess_return": -0.028271, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.219025, "worst_return": -0.218182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.087707, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073118, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.237523, "worst_return": -0.16812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.157186, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.219244, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.137638, "worst_return": -0.284887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-07-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035914, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003359, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.553859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.187396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011696, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031373, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.98, "volume": 733, "typical_volume": 1377.8, "trend": 11.811667, "fair_value": 22.360192, "relative_strength": 2.600477, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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46.698917, "activity_lines": [ 4.831333, 4.888182, 5.004153, 5.114159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.74, "volume": 1816, "typical_volume": 307.05, "trend": 5.240739, "fair_value": 7.543347, "relative_strength": -14.153344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.230426, "energy": 36.004688, "activity_lines": [ 4.802, 4.854545, 4.965667, 5.079702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.89, "volume": 234, "typical_volume": 308.95, "trend": 5.219739, "fair_value": 7.492963, "relative_strength": -12.600745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.68041, "energy": 30.363248, "activity_lines": [ 4.831333, 4.848364, 4.944095, 5.057074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.94, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 302.15, "trend": 5.172738, "fair_value": 7.442065, "relative_strength": -8.226762, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.774859, "energy": 22.440656, "activity_lines": [ 4.865333, 4.855636, 4.931143, 5.039026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }