{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00225c95-2628-452c-b0bd-5cc676531c19", "symbol": "VLTSA", "name": "Voltalia SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.18, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.383, "architecture_energy": 25.783, "architecture_maturity": 13.013, "architecture_confidence": 59.505, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.0, "rotation_up": 17.56, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 58.02, "rotation_down": 58.7, "downward_expansion": 46.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.878, 6.978182, 7.15969, 7.120204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.83, "trend_reference": 7.097333, "distance_from_trend": -0.037667, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.1705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164066, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.786092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043417, "excess_performance": -0.096729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02577, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 334772, "relative_activity": 0.842816, "balance": 0.783814, "dry_up": 1.133997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079513, "annualized_volatility": 0.39185, "from_high_reference": -0.215844, "from_low_reference": 0.159593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.097333, "fair_value_reference": 8.1705, "structural_low": 6.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008594, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.004682, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15081, "worst_return": -0.180387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059159, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.127164, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.065981, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.119235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.13045, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": -0.006944, "worst_return": -0.524266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.120879, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.194588, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.111579, "worst_return": -0.197088, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.198925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.275917, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007123, 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.2, "volume": 39554, "typical_volume": 375314.25, "trend": 7.197, "fair_value": 8.449346, "relative_strength": -5.632195, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.561914, "energy": 23.079026, "activity_lines": [ 7.242, 7.426364, 7.275929, 7.213204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.9, "volume": 568628, "typical_volume": 386990.65, "trend": 7.191667, "fair_value": 8.397679, "relative_strength": -7.248435, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.441296, "energy": 18.246395, "activity_lines": [ 7.096667, 7.330545, 7.25469, 7.194043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.87, "volume": 602413, "typical_volume": 400013.3, "trend": 7.182333, "fair_value": 8.339154, "relative_strength": -7.213924, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.798658, "energy": 21.09591, "activity_lines": [ 7.018667, 7.232182, 7.230667, 7.17329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.82, "volume": 450786, "typical_volume": 406094.7, "trend": 7.155, "fair_value": 8.281718, "relative_strength": -7.855498, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.877581, "energy": 28.359003, "activity_lines": [ 6.934, 7.129818, 7.202738, 7.149914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.98, "volume": 413752, "typical_volume": 397344.1, "trend": 7.1155, "fair_value": 8.226077, "relative_strength": -6.935578, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.429074, "energy": 25.876987, "activity_lines": [ 6.919333, 7.057455, 7.190024, 7.138624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.83, "volume": 334772, "typical_volume": 397206.45, "trend": 7.097333, "fair_value": 8.1705, "relative_strength": -10.786092, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.382661, "energy": 25.782892, "activity_lines": [ 6.878, 6.978182, 7.15969, 7.120204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }