{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0022af40-b5f8-4527-a1df-a8e95e5a2070", "symbol": "2903", "name": "Far Eastern Department Stores, Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 68.308, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.552, "architecture_energy": 13.574, "architecture_maturity": 34.61, "architecture_confidence": 74.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.59, "rotation_up": 31.35, "upward_expansion": 57.85, "deceleration": 82.27, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 19.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.97, 22.082292, 21.908214, 21.803877 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.65, "trend_reference": 21.644113, "distance_from_trend": 0.000272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.069005, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018986, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.992231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008907, "excess_performance": -0.450279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000272, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018986, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017216, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279922, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.226238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12165654, "relative_activity": 1.036129, "balance": 1.226238, "dry_up": 0.989116, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037915, "annualized_volatility": 0.146378, "from_high_reference": -0.065541, "from_low_reference": 0.103337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.644113, "fair_value_reference": 22.069005, "structural_low": 20.426088, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.000868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024092, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.115248, "worst_return": -0.088152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.037438, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.03141, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.203901, "worst_return": -0.17146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.038834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.092591, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.35259, "worst_return": -0.328989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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22.027804, "relative_strength": -23.387531, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.098448, "energy": 29.89695, "activity_lines": [ 22.223333, 22.206818, 21.892032, 21.775447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.0, "volume": 7636426, "typical_volume": 11522447.65, "trend": 21.628533, "fair_value": 22.049662, "relative_strength": -25.031034, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.766943, "energy": 22.892142, "activity_lines": [ 22.153333, 22.188962, 21.916822, 21.802492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.65, "volume": 12165654, "typical_volume": 11741443.65, "trend": 21.644113, "fair_value": 22.069005, "relative_strength": -27.992231, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.552021, "energy": 13.573654, "activity_lines": [ 21.97, 22.082292, 21.908214, 21.803877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }