{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0022cfd6-1aa3-46bf-98a4-e098fe6a5b1c", "symbol": "PGJ", "name": "INVESCO GOLDEN DRAGON CHINA ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.069, "architecture_energy": 21.971, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.529, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.7, "rotation_up": 39.5, "upward_expansion": 23.65, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 22.59, "downward_expansion": 57.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.8458, 24.208131, 24.607528, 25.195469 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.5845, "trend_reference": 26.222136, "distance_from_trend": -0.024317, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.82915, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.912375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143967, "excess_performance": -0.33142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024317, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067715, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209124, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143967, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78296, "relative_activity": 0.655587, "balance": 0.584707, "dry_up": 0.908233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052848, "annualized_volatility": 0.257426, "from_high_reference": -0.251465, "from_low_reference": 0.179553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.222136, "fair_value_reference": 25.82915, "structural_low": 21.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.013395, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.018045, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.343705, "worst_return": -0.164287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074041, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.51163, "worst_return": -0.197743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026571, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058004, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.384759, "worst_return": -0.350868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.140389, "energy": 76.218062, "activity_lines": [ 23.139609, 23.780847, 24.828285, 25.681243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.2509, "volume": 116963, "typical_volume": 126003.95, "trend": 26.697504, "fair_value": 25.878562, "relative_strength": -23.541903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.992112, "energy": 54.65222, "activity_lines": [ 23.464007, 23.742604, 24.7059, 25.512827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.5591, "volume": 109346, "typical_volume": 119298.0, "trend": 26.502295, "fair_value": 25.846005, "relative_strength": -23.958244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.907244, "energy": 45.999978, "activity_lines": [ 23.566607, 23.627012, 24.534758, 25.310349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.487, "volume": 129272, "typical_volume": 120216.1, "trend": 26.349848, "fair_value": 25.831636, "relative_strength": -17.713936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.278309, "energy": 20.841009, "activity_lines": [ 24.301927, 23.912359, 24.562046, 25.244847 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.5845, "volume": 78296, "typical_volume": 119428.85, "trend": 26.222136, "fair_value": 25.82915, "relative_strength": -20.912375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.069302, "energy": 21.971204, "activity_lines": [ 24.8458, 24.208131, 24.607528, 25.195469 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }