{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0022d539-bdb2-46d7-ae37-ca58f1fcc616", "symbol": "TENB", "name": "Tenable Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.416, "architecture_energy": 50.771, "architecture_maturity": 71.642, "architecture_confidence": 79.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.72, "rotation_up": 52.24, "upward_expansion": 81.32, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 25.75, "downward_expansion": 7.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.25, 34.715273, 30.775333, 27.929871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.38, "trend_reference": 24.991667, "distance_from_trend": 0.455685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.97016, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011394, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.669964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.713613, "excess_performance": 0.526159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.455685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011394, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.420077, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.2167, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.538823, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.713613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.25349, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16676534, "relative_activity": 0.963437, "balance": 2.25349, "dry_up": 1.069975, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137463, "annualized_volatility": 0.745373, "from_high_reference": -0.166934, "from_low_reference": 1.313514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.991667, "fair_value_reference": 35.97016, "structural_low": 15.725, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.031637, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.035095, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.191218, "worst_return": -0.170018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091696, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089251, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.137457, "worst_return": -0.206926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013784, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.149058, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.13135, "worst_return": -0.40776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.095093, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.40516, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.093039, "worst_return": -0.193569, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.144107, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08299, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083834, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-18", 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"energy": 94.984346, "activity_lines": [ 34.966667, 31.439636, 26.903143, 25.028667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.88, "volume": 16626302, "typical_volume": 16430391.85, "trend": 23.952667, "fair_value": 36.217917, "relative_strength": 37.410782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.258205, "energy": 92.734015, "activity_lines": [ 37.442, 33.470182, 28.423714, 26.088688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.25, "volume": 19787225, "typical_volume": 16770927.15, "trend": 24.224333, "fair_value": 36.119135, "relative_strength": 13.536524, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.205302, "energy": 82.108956, "activity_lines": [ 36.502, 33.785273, 29.119286, 26.624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.64, "volume": 20992567, "typical_volume": 17300783.75, "trend": 24.554667, "fair_value": 36.028494, "relative_strength": 14.704124, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.836834, "energy": 57.328725, "activity_lines": [ 35.333333, 33.975636, 29.798619, 27.166946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.38, "volume": 16676534, "typical_volume": 17309425.75, "trend": 24.991667, "fair_value": 35.97016, "relative_strength": 21.669964, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.416091, "energy": 50.770956, "activity_lines": [ 35.25, 34.715273, 30.775333, 27.929871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }