{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0026c1e3-5f58-445c-877a-a5a6b094e934", "symbol": "SGI", "name": "Stealth Group Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.191, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.181, "architecture_energy": 43.955, "architecture_maturity": 22.424, "architecture_confidence": 68.041, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.56, "rotation_up": 59.26, "upward_expansion": 53.86, "deceleration": 33.93, "rotation_down": 23.33, "downward_expansion": 14.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.277667, 1.247909, 1.145667, 1.118059 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.3, "trend_reference": 1.12525, "distance_from_trend": 0.155299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.600887, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.163468, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.559673, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015152, "excess_performance": -0.078857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.163468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.415669, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.175597, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015152, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.484722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 891443, "relative_activity": 2.180964, "balance": 1.484722, "dry_up": 1.117097, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090533, "annualized_volatility": 0.604006, "from_high_reference": -0.18239, "from_low_reference": 1.126101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.12525, "fair_value_reference": 0.600887, "structural_low": 0.735, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038473, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115386, "worst_return": -0.111112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.250002, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.223416, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.274269, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.583338, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.568668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.994509, "worst_return": -0.074075, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099337, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041197, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, 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"2026-07-03", "close": 1.26, "volume": 16567, "typical_volume": 612338.1, "trend": 1.13725, "fair_value": 0.563943, "relative_strength": 25.883474, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.533746, "energy": 49.651011, "activity_lines": [ 1.179667, 1.090273, 1.038762, 1.073452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.275, "volume": 246476, "typical_volume": 609382.8, "trend": 1.13675, "fair_value": 0.571345, "relative_strength": 26.688793, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.706856, "energy": 61.284354, "activity_lines": [ 1.233, 1.135818, 1.061333, 1.082339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.245, "volume": 393516, "typical_volume": 503666.95, "trend": 1.133583, "fair_value": 0.578586, "relative_strength": 22.534289, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.471471, "energy": 61.805086, "activity_lines": [ 1.253, 1.167182, 1.081143, 1.089323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.24, "volume": 351240, "typical_volume": 444887.9, "trend": 1.128417, "fair_value": 0.585764, "relative_strength": 20.989725, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.512484, "energy": 59.949149, "activity_lines": [ 1.252, 1.191364, 1.10019, 1.096188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.295, "volume": 190202, "typical_volume": 406669.2, "trend": 1.127583, "fair_value": 0.593294, "relative_strength": 22.133973, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.346938, "energy": 54.41438, "activity_lines": [ 1.265333, 1.222091, 1.123381, 1.106935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.3, "volume": 891443, "typical_volume": 408738.05, "trend": 1.12525, "fair_value": 0.600887, "relative_strength": 17.559673, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.18059, "energy": 43.954869, "activity_lines": [ 1.277667, 1.247909, 1.145667, 1.118059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }