{ "ticker": { "uuid": "002cfc5e-3727-4960-a096-6e650aad2db1", "symbol": "BH", "name": "Biglari Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.937, "architecture_energy": 29.123, "architecture_maturity": 32.483, "architecture_confidence": 56.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.97, "rotation_up": 44.04, "upward_expansion": 45.71, "deceleration": 50.54, "rotation_down": 26.75, "downward_expansion": 11.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 387.220667, 383.886909, 354.300524, 346.481333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 386.55, "trend_reference": 351.105333, "distance_from_trend": 0.100952, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 248.432949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.555953, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.402612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07057, "excess_performance": -0.196195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100952, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.555953, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004026, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.149494, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 937215, "relative_activity": 2.021758, "balance": 1.149494, "dry_up": 1.918978, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114064, "annualized_volatility": 0.601802, "from_high_reference": -0.200682, "from_low_reference": 0.645489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 351.105333, "fair_value_reference": 248.432949, "structural_low": 234.915, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055276, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.01192, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09919, "worst_return": -0.102763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151571, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.107223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190598, "worst_return": -0.164918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151143, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.130284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269178, "worst_return": -0.239305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.398071, "energy": 60.412127, "activity_lines": [ 387.775333, 362.864364, 336.983238, 339.180538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 381.39, "volume": 1007855, "typical_volume": 413663.2, "trend": 350.444333, "fair_value": 245.928205, "relative_strength": 4.103214, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.946975, "energy": 49.152641, "activity_lines": [ 387.246, 370.695091, 342.478714, 341.232495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 397.49, "volume": 1228623, "typical_volume": 439092.95, "trend": 352.238667, "fair_value": 247.202244, "relative_strength": 7.13065, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.295715, "energy": 34.085428, "activity_lines": [ 388.84, 379.381273, 349.141857, 344.267699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 386.55, "volume": 937215, "typical_volume": 463564.45, "trend": 351.105333, "fair_value": 248.432949, "relative_strength": 0.402612, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.937318, "energy": 29.122732, "activity_lines": [ 387.220667, 383.886909, 354.300524, 346.481333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }