{ "ticker": { "uuid": "002d0d7e-e4d8-425a-8b48-bbcc236b3973", "symbol": "HIDD", "name": "HSBC MSCI Indonesia UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.296, "architecture_energy": 37.4, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.176, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.6, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 23.1, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 37.34, "downward_expansion": 64.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.948334, 34.674728, 35.5735, 37.73263 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.485001, "trend_reference": 41.226632, "distance_from_trend": -0.163526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.707013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.391874, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.016092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310093, "excess_performance": -0.480985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136493, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.391874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.370161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053087, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.212883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55945, "relative_activity": 2.278016, "balance": 0.212883, "dry_up": 1.676721, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059714, "annualized_volatility": 0.329237, "from_high_reference": -0.390378, "from_low_reference": 0.122376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.226632, "fair_value_reference": 56.707013, "structural_low": 30.725, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.018523, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.001511, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.155603, "worst_return": -0.227733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041073, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.049945, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.204009, "worst_return": -0.230901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035301, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.084152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245334, "worst_return": -0.150662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -52.374507, "energy": 53.612408, "activity_lines": [ 34.609001, 34.393182, 36.525381, 39.191405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.299999, "volume": 23119, "typical_volume": 21497.6, "trend": 42.485461, "fair_value": 57.116911, "relative_strength": -34.728503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.797852, "energy": 49.347023, "activity_lines": [ 34.85, 34.516909, 36.191881, 38.690756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.025002, "volume": 45952, "typical_volume": 23283.85, "trend": 41.875494, "fair_value": 56.912492, "relative_strength": -34.908673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.98183, "energy": 41.899448, "activity_lines": [ 35.020001, 34.642546, 35.886024, 38.209436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.485001, "volume": 55945, "typical_volume": 24558.65, "trend": 41.226632, "fair_value": 56.707013, "relative_strength": -37.016092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.295657, "energy": 37.399896, "activity_lines": [ 34.948334, 34.674728, 35.5735, 37.73263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }