{ "ticker": { "uuid": "002e25a3-3b11-426e-a2be-5a7df1e73946", "symbol": "000533", "name": "Guangdong Shunna Electric Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.003, "architecture_energy": 24.145, "architecture_maturity": 49.712, "architecture_confidence": 67.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.52, "rotation_up": 29.32, "upward_expansion": 18.24, "deceleration": 43.78, "rotation_down": 32.17, "downward_expansion": 65.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.385333, 9.999636, 10.819476, 11.53886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.13, "trend_reference": 11.832, "distance_from_trend": 0.025186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.482821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.871099, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.349069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.447494, "excess_performance": 0.440094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049463, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.871099, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.173491, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447494, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.364571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 689669330, "relative_activity": 2.413785, "balance": 2.364571, "dry_up": 1.445638, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128099, "annualized_volatility": 0.787858, "from_high_reference": -0.444597, "from_low_reference": 0.846271 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.832, "fair_value_reference": 6.482821, "structural_low": 7.26, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.037984, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.037387, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.209524, "worst_return": -0.103535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060702, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.097477, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.482428, "worst_return": -0.087464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115681, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.183954, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.207668, "worst_return": -0.193299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.346625, "energy": 73.575838, "activity_lines": [ 9.499333, 10.324727, 11.747571, 11.961656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.97, "volume": 91100684, "typical_volume": 324776292.2, "trend": 11.616667, "fair_value": 6.359231, "relative_strength": -18.553704, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.41027, "energy": 80.14301, "activity_lines": [ 8.889333, 9.751273, 11.287048, 11.724774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.55, "volume": 115597249, "typical_volume": 319192196.0, "trend": 11.649667, "fair_value": 6.393333, "relative_strength": -3.083197, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.582008, "energy": 81.77474, "activity_lines": [ 8.987333, 9.564545, 10.994667, 11.591441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.41, "volume": 755829534, "typical_volume": 307185569.0, "trend": 11.705333, "fair_value": 6.432885, "relative_strength": 6.74291, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.963135, "energy": 51.291789, "activity_lines": [ 9.428, 9.608364, 10.809571, 11.511462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.13, "volume": 689669330, "typical_volume": 285721081.1, "trend": 11.832, "fair_value": 6.482821, "relative_strength": 17.349069, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.003201, "energy": 24.145302, "activity_lines": [ 10.385333, 9.999636, 10.819476, 11.53886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }