{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0035b8fd-3275-4d79-8f1e-baa887412d40", "symbol": "CBSEUS", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI Euro Area Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.822, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.231, "architecture_energy": 35.733, "architecture_maturity": 9.395, "architecture_confidence": 73.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.97, "rotation_up": 12.06, "upward_expansion": 4.87, "deceleration": 47.3, "rotation_down": 61.81, "downward_expansion": 73.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.1666, 13.197582, 13.204886, 13.20849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.1955, "trend_reference": 13.2335, "distance_from_trend": -0.002872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.054408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010808, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.504614, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0139, "excess_performance": -0.096783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010808, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14140, "relative_activity": 0.602932, "balance": 1.005043, "dry_up": 0.725065, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006835, "annualized_volatility": 0.035411, "from_high_reference": -0.021795, "from_low_reference": 0.014141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.2335, "fair_value_reference": 13.054408, "structural_low": 13.0115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.003345, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.007172, "regime_survival": 0.521739, "best_return": 0.038336, "worst_return": -0.025909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006755, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002501, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.024217, "worst_return": -0.065817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.00114, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.041842, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.051662, "worst_return": -0.122211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032327, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050464, "worst_return": -0.140784, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001168, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001995, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001974, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.273, "volume": 581, "typical_volume": 4240.25, "trend": 12.360317, "fair_value": 13.639981, "relative_strength": 1.233256, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.069513, "energy": 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13.231, "volume": 11915, "typical_volume": 30934.75, "trend": 13.258567, "fair_value": 13.011078, "relative_strength": -7.455126, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.100933, "energy": 11.874713, "activity_lines": [ 13.225767, 13.2111, 13.203188, 13.228299 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 13.226, "volume": 45744, "typical_volume": 32559.45, "trend": 13.2552, "fair_value": 13.016537, "relative_strength": -7.662955, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.606203, "energy": 12.246352, "activity_lines": [ 13.2304, 13.215018, 13.202569, 13.226198 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 13.3135, "volume": 3192, "typical_volume": 30970.05, "trend": 13.253333, "fair_value": 13.022706, "relative_strength": -9.38221, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.343948, "energy": 25.316626, "activity_lines": [ 13.258, 13.234018, 13.210986, 13.229959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.291, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30744.65, "trend": 13.2522, "fair_value": 13.029379, "relative_strength": -10.793068, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.674143, "energy": 36.095794, "activity_lines": [ 13.2712, 13.247827, 13.217583, 13.232389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.2275, "volume": 18888, "typical_volume": 30302.75, "trend": 13.250417, "fair_value": 13.034956, "relative_strength": -9.732461, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.863758, "energy": 28.692132, "activity_lines": [ 13.261667, 13.247955, 13.218612, 13.230796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.1695, "volume": 7758, "typical_volume": 30432.8, "trend": 13.247583, "fair_value": 13.040162, "relative_strength": -10.488225, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.330883, "energy": 17.052654, "activity_lines": [ 13.232233, 13.2365, 13.214981, 13.225575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.115, "volume": 22627, "typical_volume": 27130.0, "trend": 13.24245, "fair_value": 13.044226, "relative_strength": -10.423948, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.970054, "energy": 31.200052, "activity_lines": [ 13.188733, 13.215809, 13.207338, 13.217022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.1525, "volume": 23492, "typical_volume": 25336.6, "trend": 13.237783, "fair_value": 13.049001, "relative_strength": -9.929363, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.586164, "energy": 39.018838, "activity_lines": [ 13.165133, 13.202264, 13.20406, 13.211218 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.1955, "volume": 14140, "typical_volume": 23452.05, "trend": 13.2335, "fair_value": 13.054408, "relative_strength": -10.504614, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.230711, "energy": 35.733086, "activity_lines": [ 13.1666, 13.197582, 13.204886, 13.20849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }