{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0043d3cc-9b56-4509-868c-fe4ba00f96f3", "symbol": "300824", "name": "Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.004, "architecture_energy": 54.076, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.782, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 28.9, "upward_expansion": 14.51, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 46.58, "downward_expansion": 76.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.514, 7.524, 8.102125, 8.673999 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.75, "trend_reference": 9.479329, "distance_from_trend": -0.182432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.518759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.20532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.303756, "excess_performance": -0.311156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130031, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002049, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20696700, "relative_activity": 1.28693, "balance": 0.521329, "dry_up": 1.412393, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081588, "annualized_volatility": 0.305855, "from_high_reference": -0.442411, "from_low_reference": 0.116715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.479329, "fair_value_reference": 9.518759, "structural_low": 6.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 4e-06, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034315, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.285577, "worst_return": -0.162817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.044633, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041437, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.271152, "worst_return": -0.28301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088441, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.006632, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295243, "worst_return": -0.371159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"direction": -77.749539, "energy": 86.772398, "activity_lines": [ 7.488, 7.902, 8.696762, 9.267946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.55, "volume": 20521789, "typical_volume": 15631483.75, "trend": 9.861924, "fair_value": 9.557847, "relative_strength": -31.96411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.638611, "energy": 66.835582, "activity_lines": [ 7.468, 7.754, 8.529757, 9.110855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.03, "volume": 27405450, "typical_volume": 15765086.15, "trend": 9.715663, "fair_value": 9.540068, "relative_strength": -36.001595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.121676, "energy": 69.378916, "activity_lines": [ 7.314667, 7.558909, 8.329575, 8.92815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.62, "volume": 22233810, "typical_volume": 15852259.05, "trend": 9.593681, "fair_value": 9.529087, "relative_strength": -28.668441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.672278, "energy": 62.80186, "activity_lines": [ 7.407333, 7.516, 8.202335, 8.792946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.75, "volume": 20696700, "typical_volume": 16082232.2, "trend": 9.479329, "fair_value": 9.518759, "relative_strength": -30.20532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.00382, "energy": 54.076423, "activity_lines": [ 7.514, 7.524, 8.102125, 8.673999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }