{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0045f1d2-d6c8-446d-9b9c-0c479f33a819", "symbol": "600182", "name": "Giti Tire Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.871, "architecture_energy": 55.652, "architecture_maturity": 49.734, "architecture_confidence": 91.056, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.1, "rotation_up": 16.51, "upward_expansion": 13.68, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 62.23, "downward_expansion": 84.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.890118, 13.120396, 13.485517, 13.723263 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.07, "trend_reference": 14.079185, "distance_from_trend": -0.071679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.094383, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.93864, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145193, "excess_performance": -0.101989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07268, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099386, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.714466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9097441, "relative_activity": 1.064539, "balance": 0.714466, "dry_up": 0.970974, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070305, "annualized_volatility": 0.353775, "from_high_reference": -0.195734, "from_low_reference": 0.062863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.079185, "fair_value_reference": 14.094383, "structural_low": 12.296974, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.039769, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.015041, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.379684, "worst_return": -0.196537, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.152409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.043746, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.363707, "worst_return": -0.178238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024323, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.011495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285563, "worst_return": -0.00534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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13.813289, 13.986834, 14.177852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.176725, "volume": 16020909, "typical_volume": 8789159.5, "trend": 14.386145, "fair_value": 14.138471, "relative_strength": -12.497431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.826765, "energy": 34.970397, "activity_lines": [ 13.539331, 13.673195, 13.895844, 14.094544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.707525, "volume": 8534500, "typical_volume": 8847684.5, "trend": 14.30011, "fair_value": 14.127627, "relative_strength": -9.919314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.002636, "energy": 55.263635, "activity_lines": [ 13.232562, 13.472578, 13.768327, 13.986246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.63, "volume": 8548839, "typical_volume": 8664137.25, "trend": 14.216074, "fair_value": 14.116461, "relative_strength": -11.111045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.028255, "energy": 42.345009, "activity_lines": [ 12.98145, 13.288275, 13.644342, 13.878497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.88, "volume": 7010600, "typical_volume": 8416004.3, "trend": 14.140044, "fair_value": 14.105266, "relative_strength": -9.24766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.586064, "energy": 58.934914, "activity_lines": [ 12.918339, 13.173972, 13.552073, 13.792298 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.07, "volume": 9097441, "typical_volume": 8545901.2, "trend": 14.079185, "fair_value": 14.094383, "relative_strength": -9.93864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.870601, "energy": 55.651504, "activity_lines": [ 12.890118, 13.120396, 13.485517, 13.723263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }