{ "ticker": { "uuid": "004649ca-521f-4118-a889-db64ed10ca41", "symbol": "EQEU", "name": "Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF (EUR Hdg)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.959, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.384, "architecture_energy": 29.977, "architecture_maturity": 67.922, "architecture_confidence": 82.883, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.07, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 58.32, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 35.9, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 495.24933, 499.907817, 498.951188, 485.509956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 509.869995, "trend_reference": 469.268999, "distance_from_trend": 0.08652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 376.672756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.446201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.176632, "excess_performance": 0.00574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353615, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034462, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069764, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.71314, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1631, "relative_activity": 0.440876, "balance": 2.71314, "dry_up": 0.347619, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033097, "annualized_volatility": 0.200508, "from_high_reference": -0.027838, "from_low_reference": 0.275855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 469.268999, "fair_value_reference": 376.672756, "structural_low": 399.630005, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018468, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00483, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104394, "worst_return": -0.090449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067702, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.02114, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.141868, "worst_return": -0.151373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109493, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.026967, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20172, "worst_return": -0.035797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 3866.8, "trend": 467.204333, "fair_value": 375.139422, "relative_strength": -6.25874, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.590949, "energy": 25.781794, "activity_lines": [ 490.687333, 499.031999, 496.290427, 482.757332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 509.869995, "volume": 1631, "typical_volume": 3699.45, "trend": 469.268999, "fair_value": 376.672756, "relative_strength": -3.446201, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.383805, "energy": 29.976878, "activity_lines": [ 495.24933, 499.907817, 498.951188, 485.509956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }