{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00525615-2518-4b2f-9f4b-0e20ae10c6b7", "symbol": "APC", "name": "APC Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.79, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.86, "architecture_energy": 90.447, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.488, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.3, "rotation_up": 8.84, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 84.89, "downward_expansion": 99.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008309, 0.009338, 0.009847 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.010383, "distance_from_trend": -0.325843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.053747, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.86976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.752703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363636, "excess_performance": -0.427342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.325843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.86976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.273545, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3813487, "relative_activity": 1.821963, "balance": 0.273545, "dry_up": 1.647401, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148352, "annualized_volatility": 0.616501, "from_high_reference": -0.588235, "from_low_reference": 0.45168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010383, "fair_value_reference": 0.053747, "structural_low": 0.0065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.26087, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.030364, "regime_survival": 0.934783, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.342857, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.352276, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.085714, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.515534, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.561742, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": -0.111111, "worst_return": -0.875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-05-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-12", "end": "2023-05-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.9775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.444444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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0.011133, 0.011036, 0.011033, 0.010867 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.01, "volume": 59206, "typical_volume": 2604976.65, "trend": 0.010501, "fair_value": 0.067606, "relative_strength": -2.305499, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.731281, "energy": 7.364702, "activity_lines": [ 0.010667, 0.010864, 0.010926, 0.010837 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.009, "volume": 757152, "typical_volume": 2103251.1, "trend": 0.010468, "fair_value": 0.065356, "relative_strength": -11.383545, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.461958, "energy": 41.589076, "activity_lines": [ 0.01, 0.010527, 0.010729, 0.01074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.009, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2081410.7, "trend": 0.010467, "fair_value": 0.063362, "relative_strength": -12.145481, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.960755, "energy": 57.488926, "activity_lines": [ 0.009533, 0.010218, 0.01054, 0.010645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.009, "volume": 3494034, "typical_volume": 2124727.4, "trend": 0.010467, "fair_value": 0.061369, "relative_strength": -11.379811, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.967798, "energy": 63.602099, "activity_lines": [ 0.0092, 0.009945, 0.010362, 0.010551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.009, "volume": 1372002, "typical_volume": 1933729.75, "trend": 0.0105, "fair_value": 0.059375, "relative_strength": -11.279295, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.007576, "energy": 73.141085, "activity_lines": [ 0.009067, 0.009691, 0.010193, 0.010456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.008, "volume": 1318150, "typical_volume": 1840590.8, "trend": 0.0105, "fair_value": 0.057632, "relative_strength": -20.750648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.895409, "energy": 78.752207, "activity_lines": [ 0.008667, 0.009273, 0.009948, 0.010295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 7288832, "typical_volume": 2118943.1, "trend": 0.010433, "fair_value": 0.055625, "relative_strength": -31.94168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.154556, "energy": 86.988288, "activity_lines": [ 0.008067, 0.008745, 0.009631, 0.010069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3813487, "typical_volume": 2093064.95, "trend": 0.010383, "fair_value": 0.053747, "relative_strength": -33.752703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.859753, "energy": 90.446543, "activity_lines": [ 0.0076, 0.008309, 0.009338, 0.009847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }