{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00556df4-7e89-470a-bb72-dc4b67a30e59", "symbol": "SH", "name": "PROSHARES SHORT S&P 500", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.467, "architecture_energy": 51.082, "architecture_maturity": 53.387, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 27.07, "upward_expansion": 7.1, "deceleration": 54.95, "rotation_down": 51.9, "downward_expansion": 80.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.850667, 33.015784, 33.277076, 33.964159 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.07, "trend_reference": 34.710656, "distance_from_trend": -0.076076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.692351, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.569776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098915, "excess_performance": -0.22454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026008, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35637545, "relative_activity": 0.738238, "balance": 0.457797, "dry_up": 0.805543, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02666, "annualized_volatility": 0.14159, "from_high_reference": -0.181888, "from_low_reference": 0.005644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.710656, "fair_value_reference": 40.692351, "structural_low": 31.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.008677, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.021306, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.082418, "worst_return": -0.057105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.028047, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.072141, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.176168, "worst_return": -0.082307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065627, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.153371, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.15429, "worst_return": -0.106037, 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-14.814871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.613951, "energy": 44.148548, "activity_lines": [ 33.141087, 33.149271, 33.719212, 34.348986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.5, "volume": 35154195, "typical_volume": 53301784.9, "trend": 34.906697, "fair_value": 40.89769, "relative_strength": -13.264909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.684705, "energy": 39.235515, "activity_lines": [ 33.251333, 33.216149, 33.611306, 34.254143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.16, "volume": 46444114, "typical_volume": 49737596.75, "trend": 34.818052, "fair_value": 40.799186, "relative_strength": -14.499869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.822745, "energy": 40.113665, "activity_lines": [ 33.212667, 33.216548, 33.486233, 34.141453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.07, "volume": 35637545, "typical_volume": 48273758.05, "trend": 34.710656, "fair_value": 40.692351, "relative_strength": -19.569776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.466602, "energy": 51.082232, "activity_lines": [ 32.850667, 33.015784, 33.277076, 33.964159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }