{ "ticker": { "uuid": "005a8720-1f3c-42b2-b9cd-4badb92a8c3b", "symbol": "FRSX", "name": "Foresight Autonomous Holdings Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.519, "architecture_energy": 70.084, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.023, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.72, "rotation_up": 15.43, "upward_expansion": 14.39, "deceleration": 40.16, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 90.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.311067, 1.447564, 1.663457, 1.851216 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.22, "trend_reference": 2.166017, "distance_from_trend": -0.436754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.050094, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.923988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.669657, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.537669, "excess_performance": -0.725122, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.436754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.37787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.923988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.736697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000719, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.537669, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.026546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69185, "relative_activity": 0.021373, "balance": 0.026546, "dry_up": 0.094782, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.296583, "annualized_volatility": 0.677939, "from_high_reference": -0.853391, "from_low_reference": 0.06087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.166017, "fair_value_reference": 16.050094, "structural_low": 1.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.082047, "positive_rate": 0.27451, "directional_follow_through": 0.72549, "median_excess_return": -0.092483, "regime_survival": 0.862745, "best_return": 0.911315, "worst_return": -0.490099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.287841, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.305044, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.447353, "worst_return": -0.576314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.502739, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.571605, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.72, "worst_return": -0.717514, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.329193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.766529, "energy": 50.20614, "activity_lines": [ 1.660333, 1.748364, 1.918619, 2.136309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.39, "volume": 409842, "typical_volume": 3403172.5, "trend": 2.471117, "fair_value": 17.184247, "relative_strength": -72.052116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.109788, "energy": 51.666053, "activity_lines": [ 1.570667, 1.667909, 1.853167, 2.059032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.352, "volume": 167474, "typical_volume": 3405812.5, "trend": 2.366683, "fair_value": 16.838876, "relative_strength": -71.221659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.651273, "energy": 55.048005, "activity_lines": [ 1.480333, 1.591455, 1.790095, 1.986831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.31, "volume": 580724, "typical_volume": 3249762.8, "trend": 2.26535, "fair_value": 16.434004, "relative_strength": -71.276725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.030278, "energy": 66.633252, "activity_lines": [ 1.398533, 1.520964, 1.7293, 1.918658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.22, "volume": 69185, "typical_volume": 3236981.35, "trend": 2.166017, "fair_value": 16.050094, "relative_strength": -73.669657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.519109, "energy": 70.084278, "activity_lines": [ 1.311067, 1.447564, 1.663457, 1.851216 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }