{ "ticker": { "uuid": "005b0083-b1af-4012-bff7-8119df5fe230", "symbol": "LUCD", "name": "Lucid Diagnostics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.551, "architecture_energy": 59.993, "architecture_maturity": 29.28, "architecture_confidence": 94.762, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.18, "rotation_up": 13.9, "upward_expansion": 12.84, "deceleration": 38.96, "rotation_down": 63.34, "downward_expansion": 86.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.929673, 0.967749, 1.002757, 1.057062 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9671, "trend_reference": 1.12585, "distance_from_trend": -0.141005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.118151, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.13509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.357279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.207295, "excess_performance": -0.394749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.13509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.41977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6438882, "relative_activity": 1.107246, "balance": 0.41977, "dry_up": 1.344777, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131002, "annualized_volatility": 0.478047, "from_high_reference": -0.406432, "from_low_reference": 0.123881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.12585, "fair_value_reference": 1.118151, "structural_low": 0.8605, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.015372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01791, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.181034, "worst_return": -0.280853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.043969, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.006791, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.245902, "worst_return": -0.402326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031644, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.160731, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.303922, "worst_return": -0.336885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.357869, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.717752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.357869, "worst_return": -0.357869, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.376047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.244808, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.370038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19863, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.14876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156863, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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1.100622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9076, "volume": 6798548, "typical_volume": 5515439.6, "trend": 1.141227, "fair_value": 1.125403, "relative_strength": -26.723308, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.03598, "energy": 52.8565, "activity_lines": [ 0.970587, 0.997676, 1.030763, 1.085157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8716, "volume": 5248877, "typical_volume": 5639466.2, "trend": 1.132947, "fair_value": 1.121439, "relative_strength": -29.606687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.927354, "energy": 68.629496, "activity_lines": [ 0.927267, 0.972227, 1.011026, 1.067762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9671, "volume": 6438882, "typical_volume": 5815220.75, "trend": 1.12585, "fair_value": 1.118151, "relative_strength": -25.357279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.550623, "energy": 59.993176, "activity_lines": [ 0.929673, 0.967749, 1.002757, 1.057062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }