{ "ticker": { "uuid": "006c0b0a-7cda-4462-ad5d-9aa64750d4eb", "symbol": "SPM3", "name": "Saipem SpA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.672, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.116, "architecture_energy": 18.966, "architecture_maturity": 55.197, "architecture_confidence": 88.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.5, "rotation_up": 28.24, "upward_expansion": 56.85, "deceleration": 87.58, "rotation_down": 26.62, "downward_expansion": 18.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.286467, 4.324218, 4.307446, 4.138219 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.326, "trend_reference": 3.84613, "distance_from_trend": 0.124767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.06852, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.091351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.479685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.451072, "excess_performance": 0.276825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.124767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22082, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.091351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.134797, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207443, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.451072, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.476567, "dry_up": 0.359306, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073591, "annualized_volatility": 0.433168, "from_high_reference": -0.078005, "from_low_reference": 1.061629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.84613, "fair_value_reference": 2.06852, "structural_low": 3.015944, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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0.45824, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.45824, "worst_return": 0.45824, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-11-26", "end": "2022-09-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.426278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.030408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007119, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025996, "active": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.386376, "energy": 26.579825, "activity_lines": [ 4.311333, 4.357436, 4.254683, 4.026696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.395, "volume": 36895, "typical_volume": 33648.8, "trend": 3.723925, "fair_value": 2.026085, "relative_strength": 20.172886, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.30615, "energy": 29.206843, "activity_lines": [ 4.329467, 4.362109, 4.287042, 4.074344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.172, "volume": 177, "typical_volume": 30104.65, "trend": 3.784019, "fair_value": 2.046809, "relative_strength": 13.44939, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.07727, "energy": 20.585479, "activity_lines": [ 4.281667, 4.328782, 4.291986, 4.103252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.326, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30099.7, "trend": 3.84613, "fair_value": 2.06852, "relative_strength": 13.479685, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.115678, "energy": 18.966348, "activity_lines": [ 4.286467, 4.324218, 4.307446, 4.138219 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }