{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00734a25-a0d8-47ac-a2e4-62e053ad14bf", "symbol": "GOAI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Robotics & AI UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.484, "architecture_energy": 47.762, "architecture_maturity": 64.084, "architecture_confidence": 79.023, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.87, "rotation_up": 47.5, "upward_expansion": 75.85, "deceleration": 88.23, "rotation_down": 28.88, "downward_expansion": 11.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 159.500002, 158.757092, 156.290668, 150.108087 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 167.639999, "trend_reference": 142.705334, "distance_from_trend": 0.174728, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.316973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.466449, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.413255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.331533, "excess_performance": 0.24865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174728, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06752, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.466449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073923, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.104133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.331533, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 11.332113, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5442, "relative_activity": 1.638047, "balance": 11.332113, "dry_up": 0.604259, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043555, "annualized_volatility": 0.262429, "from_high_reference": -0.009571, "from_low_reference": 0.435766 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.705334, "fair_value_reference": 114.316973, "structural_low": 116.760002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.012512, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005773, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.071421, "worst_return": -0.03858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087781, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.048153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159538, "worst_return": -0.137004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057491, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.179422, "worst_return": 0.084507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058939, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.071218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036492, 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.243319, "energy": 80.713302, "activity_lines": [ 159.786669, 154.978183, 144.121239, 139.824216 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 162.300003, "volume": 169, "typical_volume": 4920.75, "trend": 136.758667, "fair_value": 111.261588, "relative_strength": 14.133947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.358414, "energy": 68.995768, "activity_lines": [ 160.704003, 157.332365, 146.495239, 141.551657 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 155.380005, "volume": 462, "typical_volume": 4812.15, "trend": 137.537334, "fair_value": 111.680178, "relative_strength": 5.961767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.475541, "energy": 62.098594, "activity_lines": [ 158.808004, 157.782184, 148.060478, 142.753033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 160.479996, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 4636.7, "trend": 138.386667, "fair_value": 112.143319, "relative_strength": 7.297739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.658271, "energy": 57.406382, "activity_lines": [ 158.909334, 158.838183, 149.971049, 144.233205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 160.619995, "volume": 1511, "typical_volume": 4583.4, "trend": 139.329333, "fair_value": 112.577293, "relative_strength": 8.54656, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.536431, "energy": 54.537527, "activity_lines": [ 159.322665, 159.548728, 151.738953, 145.667613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 152.860001, "volume": 650, "typical_volume": 3641.5, "trend": 140.07, "fair_value": 112.968383, "relative_strength": 2.432542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.69542, "energy": 42.84227, "activity_lines": [ 157.418666, 158.477819, 152.613048, 146.54056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.960007, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 3416.15, "trend": 140.714, "fair_value": 113.353511, "relative_strength": 1.896511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.524666, "energy": 35.385909, "activity_lines": [ 155.296001, 157.209092, 153.28162, 147.307657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 158.020004, "volume": 1138, "typical_volume": 3199.2, "trend": 141.539334, "fair_value": 113.795434, "relative_strength": 5.742053, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.325701, "energy": 31.086332, "activity_lines": [ 155.882669, 157.092002, 154.406763, 148.424173 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 167.639999, "volume": 5442, "typical_volume": 3322.25, "trend": 142.705334, "fair_value": 114.316973, "relative_strength": 10.413255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.483867, "energy": 47.761708, "activity_lines": [ 159.500002, 158.757092, 156.290668, 150.108087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }