{ "ticker": { "uuid": "007bd27c-fe14-4541-9b62-90c067dd919d", "symbol": "TLS", "name": "Telstra Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.985, "architecture_energy": 25.484, "architecture_maturity": 9.706, "architecture_confidence": 74.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.9, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 10.28, "deceleration": 59.98, "rotation_down": 44.78, "downward_expansion": 47.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.975333, 4.996364, 5.096048, 5.132612 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.98, "trend_reference": 5.1121, "distance_from_trend": -0.025841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.155494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.845273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041318, "excess_performance": -0.022387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113965, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.57694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120597496, "relative_activity": 1.330895, "balance": 0.57694, "dry_up": 1.399202, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040238, "annualized_volatility": 0.169141, "from_high_reference": -0.107527, "from_low_reference": 0.080049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.1121, "fair_value_reference": 4.155494, "structural_low": 4.7579, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.002282, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.006147, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.082627, "worst_return": -0.063084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017632, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.033009, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.135649, "worst_return": -0.085311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.079398, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.0642, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.15947, "worst_return": -0.059177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.191402, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": 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4.139217, "relative_strength": -1.307854, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.495475, "energy": 46.973246, "activity_lines": [ 4.961333, 5.017818, 5.135048, 5.145483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.02, "volume": 139382955, "typical_volume": 90945170.3, "trend": 5.10388, "fair_value": 4.14754, "relative_strength": -1.032945, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.291565, "energy": 30.603185, "activity_lines": [ 4.970667, 5.007455, 5.117048, 5.140604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.98, "volume": 120597496, "typical_volume": 90613820.0, "trend": 5.1121, "fair_value": 4.155494, "relative_strength": -4.845273, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.984538, "energy": 25.483777, "activity_lines": [ 4.975333, 4.996364, 5.096048, 5.132612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }