{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0080bec0-7feb-44ab-862a-cef4f05ecc00", "symbol": "DEVP-B", "name": "DevPort AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.667, "architecture_energy": 16.476, "architecture_maturity": 17.739, "architecture_confidence": 69.827, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.42, "rotation_up": 31.6, "upward_expansion": 19.19, "deceleration": 41.09, "rotation_down": 20.71, "downward_expansion": 50.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.273333, 11.112727, 11.25379, 11.456395 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.15, "trend_reference": 11.737773, "distance_from_trend": -0.050075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.096128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.471467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.426869, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072254, "excess_performance": -0.133749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053121, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.471467, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02272, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9917, "relative_activity": 0.488482, "balance": 0.429153, "dry_up": 0.516473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090721, "annualized_volatility": 0.360987, "from_high_reference": -0.369423, "from_low_reference": 0.087805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.737773, "fair_value_reference": 21.096128, "structural_low": 10.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.027439, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.01983, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.208333, "worst_return": -0.139344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115151, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.089277, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.26506, "worst_return": -0.086066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.232098, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.15415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401836, "worst_return": -0.186047, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022599, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022436, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.453502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", 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-32.726551, "energy": 17.239089, "activity_lines": [ 11.123333, 10.968182, 11.353307, 11.576446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 6131, "typical_volume": 23940.15, "trend": 11.85193, "fair_value": 21.293995, "relative_strength": -22.606067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.255723, "energy": 17.985075, "activity_lines": [ 11.216667, 10.988182, 11.313447, 11.53015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.35, "volume": 6775, "typical_volume": 22420.55, "trend": 11.791278, "fair_value": 21.187507, "relative_strength": -21.531659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.951204, "energy": 16.853536, "activity_lines": [ 11.306667, 11.068182, 11.291332, 11.497768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.15, "volume": 9917, "typical_volume": 20301.65, "trend": 11.737773, "fair_value": 21.096128, "relative_strength": -23.426869, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.666748, "energy": 16.475925, "activity_lines": [ 11.273333, 11.112727, 11.25379, 11.456395 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }