{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00894d23-3d17-47f4-bf99-d0f1ab35006b", "symbol": "EELV", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P EMERGING MKTS LOW VOLATILITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.912, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.949, "architecture_energy": 31.685, "architecture_maturity": 25.229, "architecture_confidence": 50.318, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.49, "rotation_up": 59.62, "upward_expansion": 45.55, "deceleration": 24.01, "rotation_down": 18.8, "downward_expansion": 20.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.574333, 28.370897, 28.308576, 28.318169 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.8092, "trend_reference": 28.373391, "distance_from_trend": 0.01536, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.240086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.93166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011933, "excess_performance": -0.137557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01536, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 321469, "relative_activity": 1.366179, "balance": 0.748852, "dry_up": 0.918096, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020618, "annualized_volatility": 0.137543, "from_high_reference": -0.031949, "from_low_reference": 0.132198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.373391, "fair_value_reference": 24.240086, "structural_low": 27.215292, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015823, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.012458, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075611, "worst_return": -0.040358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.043966, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.01166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075647, "worst_return": 0.012284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.076398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112475, "worst_return": 0.04032, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 28.27, "volume": 172829, "typical_volume": 257776.9, "trend": 28.254335, "fair_value": 24.098731, "relative_strength": -5.365077, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.848659, "energy": 5.309222, "activity_lines": [ 28.139342, 28.096907, 28.194332, 28.258402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.193, "volume": 178204, "typical_volume": 245227.2, "trend": 28.281641, "fair_value": 24.140776, "relative_strength": -4.965842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.021994, "energy": 12.088097, "activity_lines": [ 28.163667, 28.121845, 28.197128, 28.254445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.79, "volume": 191629, "typical_volume": 236551.8, "trend": 28.329838, "fair_value": 24.18983, "relative_strength": -3.895868, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.442649, "energy": 14.92925, "activity_lines": [ 28.393133, 28.251452, 28.254956, 28.287242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.8092, "volume": 321469, "typical_volume": 235305.15, "trend": 28.373391, "fair_value": 24.240086, "relative_strength": -6.93166, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.948596, "energy": 31.685197, "activity_lines": [ 28.574333, 28.370897, 28.308576, 28.318169 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }