{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0089bb75-0129-43e8-852f-fb259ae1991c", "symbol": "JHX", "name": "James Hardie Industries PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.07, "architecture_energy": 73.867, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.964, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.23, "rotation_up": 76.05, "upward_expansion": 89.36, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 13.28, "downward_expansion": 13.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.490667, 26.578364, 24.759619, 23.790796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.23, "trend_reference": 23.132333, "distance_from_trend": 0.306829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.754359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 22.44663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.278765, "excess_performance": 0.15314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.306829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093555, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.326191, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.224466, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.39664, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.278765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.334859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48452212, "relative_activity": 1.33365, "balance": 2.334859, "dry_up": 1.111159, "accumulation_observations": 7, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077572, "annualized_volatility": 0.487347, "from_high_reference": -0.016431, "from_low_reference": 0.836574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.132333, "fair_value_reference": 28.754359, "structural_low": 17.355, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02465, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004348, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.178604, "worst_return": -0.259959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000505, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040104, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309973, "worst_return": -0.230273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019653, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078874, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.101977, "worst_return": -0.33408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018528, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.193429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", 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43504976, "typical_volume": 35417198.45, "trend": 22.704333, "fair_value": 28.757692, "relative_strength": 11.649845, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.42178, "energy": 53.848787, "activity_lines": [ 25.906667, 25.322182, 23.657857, 23.08572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.29, "volume": 35672524, "typical_volume": 35758843.25, "trend": 22.887, "fair_value": 28.753141, "relative_strength": 9.85164, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.661325, "energy": 48.307177, "activity_lines": [ 26.030667, 25.642364, 24.036952, 23.317054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.23, "volume": 48452212, "typical_volume": 36330539.85, "trend": 23.132333, "fair_value": 28.754359, "relative_strength": 22.44663, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.070183, "energy": 73.867491, "activity_lines": [ 27.490667, 26.578364, 24.759619, 23.790796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }