{ "ticker": { "uuid": "0089e8ab-a402-4e85-8a3e-2c2c89eadafe", "symbol": "JREG", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Global Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - USD (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.612, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.174, "architecture_energy": 69.879, "architecture_maturity": 72.804, "architecture_confidence": 73.988, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 59.41, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 67.93, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.438667, 58.117091, 57.212977, 56.060549 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.580002, "trend_reference": 54.7095, "distance_from_trend": 0.089025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.658462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276939, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.164819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138326, "excess_performance": -0.032565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276939, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043176, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.104792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141236, "relative_activity": 1.37183, "balance": 4.104792, "dry_up": 0.923542, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017352, "annualized_volatility": 0.104356, "from_high_reference": -0.002177, "from_low_reference": 0.242285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.7095, "fair_value_reference": 46.658462, "structural_low": 49.740002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.012661, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.005801, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.071669, "worst_return": -0.079387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027253, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.003758, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.102429, "worst_return": -0.153713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0876, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.018139, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.15719, "worst_return": -0.074483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 58.040001, "volume": 104766, "typical_volume": 111366.25, "trend": 54.276833, "fair_value": 46.371859, "relative_strength": -2.369649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.63281, "energy": 72.156978, "activity_lines": [ 57.987333, 57.705455, 56.590358, 55.512785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.669998, "volume": 66369, "typical_volume": 106264.55, "trend": 54.482833, "fair_value": 46.508205, "relative_strength": -3.560945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.285052, "energy": 61.988383, "activity_lines": [ 57.909333, 57.746364, 56.824476, 55.731699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.580002, "volume": 141236, "typical_volume": 102954.45, "trend": 54.7095, "fair_value": 46.658462, "relative_strength": -3.164819, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.17428, "energy": 69.879342, "activity_lines": [ 58.438667, 58.117091, 57.212977, 56.060549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }