{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00a36990-1540-4fac-88e7-8f2664c64e2c", "symbol": "CEDER", "name": "Cedergrenska AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.341, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.62, "architecture_energy": 38.884, "architecture_maturity": 44.333, "architecture_confidence": 51.088, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.48, "rotation_up": 41.44, "upward_expansion": 72.57, "deceleration": 69.21, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 10.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.186667, 47.172728, 45.791429, 44.243011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 46.599998, "trend_reference": 42.79, "distance_from_trend": 0.089039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.968966, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.666132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.617768, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165, "excess_performance": 0.103506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.666132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036882, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86659, "relative_activity": 1.171718, "balance": 0.762303, "dry_up": 0.479111, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056784, "annualized_volatility": 0.345147, "from_high_reference": -0.086275, "from_low_reference": 0.426351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.79, "fair_value_reference": 27.968966, "structural_low": 35.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.005263, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.00426, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.198413, "worst_return": -0.187773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.045387, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.530242, "worst_return": -0.04257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.3431, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.279658, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.397177, "worst_return": -0.014885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 46.58, 45.734545, 43.475714, 42.716694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.5, "volume": 32471, "typical_volume": 81922.3, "trend": 42.786667, "fair_value": 27.040051, "relative_strength": 8.131024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.327706, "energy": 72.267145, "activity_lines": [ 47.46, 46.429091, 44.101905, 43.092473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.400002, "volume": 25932, "typical_volume": 78955.6, "trend": 42.826667, "fair_value": 27.279897, "relative_strength": 8.766419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.730361, "energy": 76.778033, "activity_lines": [ 48.006667, 46.958182, 44.684762, 43.454624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.900002, "volume": 18873, "typical_volume": 76286.75, "trend": 42.85, "fair_value": 27.509587, "relative_strength": 3.558618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.026126, "energy": 70.622885, "activity_lines": [ 47.846668, 47.085455, 45.094286, 43.71742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.200001, "volume": 10274, "typical_volume": 72571.2, "trend": 42.803334, "fair_value": 27.741741, "relative_strength": 2.685386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.883443, "energy": 54.548543, "activity_lines": [ 47.640001, 47.178183, 45.494762, 43.998065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.599998, "volume": 86659, "typical_volume": 73958.9, "trend": 42.79, "fair_value": 27.968966, "relative_strength": -0.617768, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.620407, "energy": 38.884403, "activity_lines": [ 47.186667, 47.172728, 45.791429, 44.243011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }