{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00a41772-6dd5-4b43-9977-b083385dc255", "symbol": "FEMR", "name": "FIDELITY ENHANCED EMERGING MARKETS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.647, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.147, "architecture_energy": 16.751, "architecture_maturity": 60.902, "architecture_confidence": 84.203, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.89, "rotation_up": 21.73, "upward_expansion": 47.51, "deceleration": 84.89, "rotation_down": 30.71, "downward_expansion": 23.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.762, 40.317398, 40.320191, 39.360453 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.37, "trend_reference": 38.134402, "distance_from_trend": 0.058624, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.026025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.097081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126673, "excess_performance": 0.001048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058624, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084969, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301166, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099848, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030971, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.376934, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 187060, "relative_activity": 0.924466, "balance": 1.376934, "dry_up": 0.965815, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059488, "annualized_volatility": 0.281421, "from_high_reference": -0.090971, "from_low_reference": 0.431034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.134402, "fair_value_reference": 31.026025, "structural_low": 32.531787, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03011, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 24.213807, "volume": 11973, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 24.060984, "volume": 6340, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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41.23, "volume": 348720, "typical_volume": 212348.2, "trend": 37.215019, "fair_value": 30.631654, "relative_strength": 9.109088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.805309, "energy": 44.126206, "activity_lines": [ 41.550285, 41.437972, 40.04234, 38.862703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.03, "volume": 235095, "typical_volume": 215443.1, "trend": 37.468463, "fair_value": 30.728186, "relative_strength": 4.618308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.16387, "energy": 23.162172, "activity_lines": [ 40.626667, 41.031681, 40.088785, 38.979798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.19, "volume": 172766, "typical_volume": 202316.2, "trend": 37.704094, "fair_value": 30.824343, "relative_strength": 5.341357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.339565, "energy": 21.750729, "activity_lines": [ 39.928333, 40.693436, 40.144778, 39.090865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.43, "volume": 186786, "typical_volume": 198523.25, "trend": 37.917304, "fair_value": 30.921036, "relative_strength": 4.518799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.375792, "energy": 19.882946, "activity_lines": [ 39.612667, 40.409913, 40.200401, 39.202214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.37, "volume": 187060, "typical_volume": 202343.9, "trend": 38.134402, "fair_value": 31.026025, "relative_strength": 3.097081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.147121, "energy": 16.751481, "activity_lines": [ 39.762, 40.317398, 40.320191, 39.360453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }