{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00a82fe7-82b2-46f8-93d8-f77c0a965d51", "symbol": "EMC", "name": "EMC Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.611, "architecture_energy": 15.142, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.343, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.51, "rotation_up": 42.29, "upward_expansion": 29.53, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 19.21, "downward_expansion": 13.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.021818, 0.021476, 0.021742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.022, "distance_from_trend": 0.363636, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.058846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.490196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.219901, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.5, "excess_performance": 0.307675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.363636, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.490196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21181, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.370744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.5, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 293299000, "relative_activity": 6.836709, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.431506, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.307692, "annualized_volatility": 1.512938, "from_high_reference": -0.4, "from_low_reference": 2.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022, "fair_value_reference": 0.058846, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.04881, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063068, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.227273, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.243031, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.037037, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.272727, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.284189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.185185, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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0.02, 0.02, 0.02119, 0.021742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 1775300, "typical_volume": 168381918.4, "trend": 0.022667, "fair_value": 0.060385, "relative_strength": -46.267591, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.835151, "energy": 15.640093, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.02, 0.021, 0.021548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 12005800, "typical_volume": 165131138.4, "trend": 0.022333, "fair_value": 0.059808, "relative_strength": -45.464137, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.562285, "energy": 15.265436, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.02, 0.02081, 0.021376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 110172300, "typical_volume": 48655305.0, "trend": 0.022, "fair_value": 0.059295, "relative_strength": -43.855083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.062091, "energy": 14.504835, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.02, 0.020667, 0.021226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 293299000, "typical_volume": 42900610.0, "trend": 0.022, "fair_value": 0.058846, "relative_strength": -14.219901, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.610838, "energy": 15.141766, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.021818, 0.021476, 0.021742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }