{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00a87f06-fcbe-4e3b-9ab8-640812a2ddcb", "symbol": "600365", "name": "Tonghua Grape Wine Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.514, "architecture_energy": 21.791, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.577, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.33, "rotation_up": 31.16, "upward_expansion": 22.48, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 23.36, "downward_expansion": 56.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.686667, 2.622909, 2.699619, 2.798624 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 2.923, "distance_from_trend": -0.04208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.082821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091741, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.797998, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063545, "excess_performance": -0.020341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073828, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091741, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060804, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056456, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.453335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12379000, "relative_activity": 0.625955, "balance": 0.453335, "dry_up": 0.713302, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066484, "annualized_volatility": 0.260476, "from_high_reference": -0.23913, "from_low_reference": 0.222707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.923, "fair_value_reference": 3.082821, "structural_low": 2.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.002461, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001882, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.205955, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.036506, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.278431, "worst_return": -0.155477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066055, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006255, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.243243, "worst_return": -0.155477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09772, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"relative_strength": -11.321759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.435471, "energy": 53.985755, "activity_lines": [ 2.574, 2.588545, 2.748667, 2.85329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.52, "volume": 11659400, "typical_volume": 22151544.6, "trend": 2.957667, "fair_value": 3.092692, "relative_strength": -15.928303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.122462, "energy": 43.454155, "activity_lines": [ 2.57, 2.564364, 2.714381, 2.823505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.71, "volume": 9740400, "typical_volume": 20750068.2, "trend": 2.938, "fair_value": 3.086987, "relative_strength": -9.579351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.018262, "energy": 30.669431, "activity_lines": [ 2.624, 2.584, 2.701476, 2.807527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 12379000, "typical_volume": 19776188.2, "trend": 2.923, "fair_value": 3.082821, "relative_strength": -8.797998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.514428, "energy": 21.791289, "activity_lines": [ 2.686667, 2.622909, 2.699619, 2.798624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }