{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00af3ff2-bd28-46c3-aeb1-c915053fbecf", "symbol": "2538", "name": "Kee Tai Properties Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.676, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.115, "architecture_energy": 36.975, "architecture_maturity": 15.846, "architecture_confidence": 90.854, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.05, "rotation_up": 19.18, "upward_expansion": 7.02, "deceleration": 42.84, "rotation_down": 51.92, "downward_expansion": 75.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.264133, 9.339945, 9.342343, 9.412284 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.11, "trend_reference": 9.570033, "distance_from_trend": -0.04807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.444394, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.119313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086717, "excess_performance": -0.528089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.361193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.358281, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1610748, "relative_activity": 0.745572, "balance": 1.358281, "dry_up": 0.943557, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035439, "annualized_volatility": 0.177564, "from_high_reference": -0.232842, "from_low_reference": 0.040073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.570033, "fair_value_reference": 12.444394, "structural_low": 8.759, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.009381, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.21, "worst_return": -0.09622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.093878, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.140483, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.252032, "worst_return": -0.118943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.209427, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.208442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277802, "worst_return": -0.235415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.185546, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.156159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.748971, "worst_return": -0.275275, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032934, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.045951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.050476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032344, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 11.232553, "volume": 5390915, "typical_volume": 3066274.0, "trend": 10.658109, "fair_value": 9.424698, "relative_strength": -2.566948, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", 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9.384643, 9.491317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.5, "volume": 3257073, "typical_volume": 2152192.2, "trend": 9.6672, "fair_value": 12.461667, "relative_strength": -31.696618, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.43761, "energy": 12.411988, "activity_lines": [ 9.447433, 9.4487, 9.392424, 9.477772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.16, "volume": 1799512, "typical_volume": 2160561.5, "trend": 9.617867, "fair_value": 12.453603, "relative_strength": -34.604422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.938365, "energy": 22.636601, "activity_lines": [ 9.353733, 9.401736, 9.368502, 9.445049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.11, "volume": 1610748, "typical_volume": 2160419.15, "trend": 9.570033, "fair_value": 12.444394, "relative_strength": -36.119313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.11488, "energy": 36.974541, "activity_lines": [ 9.264133, 9.339945, 9.342343, 9.412284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }