{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00afeaf0-c742-4b41-ab5c-2ef34795d2b5", "symbol": "AIFD", "name": "TCW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.494, "architecture_energy": 23.009, "architecture_maturity": 70.813, "architecture_confidence": 92.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.96, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 57.09, "deceleration": 88.23, "rotation_down": 29.52, "downward_expansion": 18.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.471367, 51.104453, 50.82048, 48.670173 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.4363, "trend_reference": 45.658733, "distance_from_trend": 0.14844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.796017, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.551553, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.5272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.361275, "excess_performance": 0.173821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.551553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115272, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.361275, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146740, "relative_activity": 1.297495, "balance": 1.131208, "dry_up": 0.795719, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074012, "annualized_volatility": 0.254483, "from_high_reference": -0.092798, "from_low_reference": 0.683927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.658733, "fair_value_reference": 33.796017, "structural_low": 36.22, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.369878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068521, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 25.6884, "volume": 31126, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 26.3521, "volume": 106426, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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52.377573, 49.303556, 46.691999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 52.7899, "volume": 74640, "typical_volume": 112670.1, "trend": 44.058437, "fair_value": 33.228075, "relative_strength": 13.941732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.205946, "energy": 50.782542, "activity_lines": [ 52.6543, 52.583085, 49.928248, 47.289329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.4, "volume": 66407, "typical_volume": 112206.7, "trend": 44.460083, "fair_value": 33.3687, "relative_strength": 10.751699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.3834, "energy": 31.679089, "activity_lines": [ 51.465373, 52.076047, 50.168554, 47.633946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.0737, "volume": 54869, "typical_volume": 110840.2, "trend": 44.82304, "fair_value": 33.504088, "relative_strength": 11.288539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.905336, "energy": 22.75423, "activity_lines": [ 50.430347, 51.520385, 50.330636, 47.931598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.0195, "volume": 91951, "typical_volume": 112287.7, "trend": 45.184857, "fair_value": 33.636698, "relative_strength": 10.09023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.821326, "energy": 21.467723, "activity_lines": [ 49.785673, 50.981431, 50.43665, 48.202338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.4363, "volume": 146740, "typical_volume": 113094.85, "trend": 45.658733, "fair_value": 33.796017, "relative_strength": 11.5272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.494304, "energy": 23.008792, "activity_lines": [ 50.471367, 51.104453, 50.82048, 48.670173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }