{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00c22122-c2f3-4dee-b967-bf637bb48dea", "symbol": "WB", "name": "Weibo Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.972, "architecture_energy": 22.97, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.17, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.47, "rotation_up": 35.93, "upward_expansion": 21.12, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 21.62, "downward_expansion": 55.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.914, 7.740545, 7.82176, 8.030305 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.94, "trend_reference": 8.429609, "distance_from_trend": -0.058082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.386127, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.516651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167037, "excess_performance": -0.35449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167037, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.295631, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3542453, "relative_activity": 0.625879, "balance": 0.295631, "dry_up": 0.671708, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052622, "annualized_volatility": 0.266786, "from_high_reference": -0.34507, "from_low_reference": 0.119887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.429609, "fair_value_reference": 8.386127, "structural_low": 7.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.03729, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026796, "regime_survival": 0.914286, "best_return": 0.59808, "worst_return": -0.255437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0889, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.140411, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.829027, "worst_return": -0.365355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.181692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.241455, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.497943, "worst_return": -0.51851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 7.462667, 7.579818, 7.879245, 8.207498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.75, "volume": 4073192, "typical_volume": 5910832.9, "trend": 8.607853, "fair_value": 8.447566, "relative_strength": -25.856591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.759052, "energy": 48.955407, "activity_lines": [ 7.562667, 7.581091, 7.841807, 8.14834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.73, "volume": 3725038, "typical_volume": 5901334.75, "trend": 8.549338, "fair_value": 8.421472, "relative_strength": -24.306454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.536957, "energy": 34.219361, "activity_lines": [ 7.648667, 7.592182, 7.809793, 8.091705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.15, "volume": 3866689, "typical_volume": 5888166.8, "trend": 8.49235, "fair_value": 8.40265, "relative_strength": -20.192081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.211069, "energy": 23.241824, "activity_lines": [ 7.848, 7.686727, 7.823465, 8.065941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.94, "volume": 3542453, "typical_volume": 5659962.25, "trend": 8.429609, "fair_value": 8.386127, "relative_strength": -25.516651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.971836, "energy": 22.969646, "activity_lines": [ 7.914, 7.740545, 7.82176, 8.030305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }