{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00c43e6a-b57b-4611-9a99-6ed8003d5268", "symbol": "ZIGA", "name": "Ziga Innovation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.349, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.835, "architecture_energy": 41.451, "architecture_maturity": 25.881, "architecture_confidence": 92.202, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.52, "rotation_up": 17.57, "upward_expansion": 9.65, "deceleration": 38.85, "rotation_down": 58.18, "downward_expansion": 82.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.864, 0.869818, 0.875952, 0.882258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.85, "trend_reference": 0.893333, "distance_from_trend": -0.048507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.6075, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.471229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.231332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.141414, "excess_performance": -0.333739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.471229, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002803, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039175, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119718, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3509600, "relative_activity": 0.360074, "balance": 1.119718, "dry_up": 0.38224, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050679, "annualized_volatility": 0.278378, "from_high_reference": -0.365672, "from_low_reference": 0.180556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.893333, "fair_value_reference": 1.6075, "structural_low": 0.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.041237, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.065659, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.219048, "worst_return": -0.329193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.231017, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.208995, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.425926, "worst_return": -0.43354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.26201, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.343401, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537736, "worst_return": -0.608911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.139623, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.151406, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.064815, "worst_return": -0.415842, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.238318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.091667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"volume": 4919600, "typical_volume": 10608635.0, "trend": 0.894667, "fair_value": 1.625192, "relative_strength": -25.913697, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.909921, "energy": 13.911811, "activity_lines": [ 0.882667, 0.880364, 0.881381, 0.888882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.87, "volume": 4018000, "typical_volume": 10156540.0, "trend": 0.894333, "fair_value": 1.619103, "relative_strength": -25.903873, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.664015, "energy": 15.434305, "activity_lines": [ 0.878667, 0.878182, 0.880667, 0.88729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.86, "volume": 2455400, "typical_volume": 9972510.0, "trend": 0.893667, "fair_value": 1.613397, "relative_strength": -24.890734, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.432493, "energy": 22.366346, "activity_lines": [ 0.872667, 0.874545, 0.87881, 0.885075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.85, "volume": 3509600, "typical_volume": 9746890.0, "trend": 0.893333, "fair_value": 1.6075, "relative_strength": -24.231332, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.834709, "energy": 41.451323, "activity_lines": [ 0.864, 0.869818, 0.875952, 0.882258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }