{ "ticker": { "uuid": "00c46d5d-2ab4-4373-9484-bd42ca19e3ff", "symbol": "014280", "name": "Kumkang Kind Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.654, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.286, "architecture_energy": 10.628, "architecture_maturity": 8.012, "architecture_confidence": 48.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.38, "rotation_up": 37.42, "upward_expansion": 37.43, "deceleration": 29.52, "rotation_down": 18.2, "downward_expansion": 41.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 4539.666667, 4471.0, 4334.666667, 4428.376344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4605.0, "trend_reference": 4605.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.000145, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4872.721578, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054943, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.680675, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132768, "excess_performance": -0.263691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000145, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13522, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.259682, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132768, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.054487, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 493340, "relative_activity": 0.465436, "balance": 6.054487, "dry_up": 3.22095, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096968, "annualized_volatility": 0.432858, "from_high_reference": -0.447075, "from_low_reference": 0.247967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4605.666667, "fair_value_reference": 4872.721578, "structural_low": 3690.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.04685, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.033366, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.12357, "worst_return": -0.104273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.132159, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.018546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178746, "worst_return": -0.132472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092216, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.130478, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.301662, "worst_return": -0.049131, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060573, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058639, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041045, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", 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"fair_value": 4879.513611, "relative_strength": -36.602763, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.803159, "energy": 10.094191, "activity_lines": [ 4408.666667, 4363.363636, 4278.380952, 4429.731183 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 4630.0, "volume": 11257763, "typical_volume": 1076783.8, "trend": 4621.166667, "fair_value": 4876.018074, "relative_strength": -31.103534, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.137973, "energy": 9.21093, "activity_lines": [ 4486.333333, 4424.727273, 4306.309524, 4429.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 4605.0, "volume": 493340, "typical_volume": 1059953.0, "trend": 4605.666667, "fair_value": 4872.721578, "relative_strength": -26.680675, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.286061, "energy": 10.627614, "activity_lines": [ 4539.666667, 4471.0, 4334.666667, 4428.376344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }